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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 55.02%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 23.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.76%) and 0-1 (7.72%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 2-1 (6.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
Result | ||
Harrogate Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
23.45% ( -1.77) | 21.53% ( -0.79) | 55.02% ( 2.55) |
Both teams to score 61.77% ( 0.73) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.23% ( 1.88) | 36.77% ( -1.88) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.07% ( 2.01) | 58.93% ( -2.01) |
Harrogate Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.33% ( -0.37) | 28.67% ( 0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.51% ( -0.46) | 64.49% ( 0.46) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.6% ( 1.46) | 13.4% ( -1.46) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.67% ( 2.85) | 40.33% ( -2.85) |
Score Analysis |
Harrogate Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
2-1 @ 6.03% ( -0.36) 1-0 @ 4.8% ( -0.51) 2-0 @ 3% ( -0.35) 3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 2.51% ( -0.18) 3-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.16) Other @ 3.36% Total : 23.45% | 1-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.46) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.84% ( -0.36) 3-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.29% Total : 21.53% | 1-2 @ 9.7% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 7.76% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 7.72% ( -0.3) 1-3 @ 6.5% ( 0.36) 0-3 @ 5.2% ( 0.34) 2-3 @ 4.06% ( 0.19) 1-4 @ 3.27% ( 0.34) 0-4 @ 2.61% ( 0.3) 2-4 @ 2.04% ( 0.19) 1-5 @ 1.31% ( 0.2) 0-5 @ 1.05% ( 0.17) Other @ 3.81% Total : 55.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
> League Two Full Table |