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Angers
AJ Auxerre
Brest logo
Le Havre
Lens logo
Lille
Lyon
Marseille
Monaco
Montpellier
Nantes
Nice
PSG logo
Reims
Rennes
Saint-Etienne
Strasbourg
Toulouse
Brest logo
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 38
Jun 3, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Blé
Rennes

Brest
1 - 2
Rennes

Belkebla (36' pen.)
Magnetti (42'), Lees-Melou (45+2'), Lemarechal (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Bourigeaud (13', 45+4' pen.)
Gouiri (42'), Meling (83'), Bourigeaud (85'), Alemdar (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Rennes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Marseille 1-2 Brest
Saturday, May 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Rennes 2-0 Monaco
Saturday, May 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1

We said: Brest 2-2 Rennes

Knowing that three points will guarantee European football for next season, Rennes will likely go all out to secure the win on Saturday, but in-form Brest will not go down without a fight. Given that Brest have won each of their last three matches – and each of their previous five on home soil – we expect the Pirates to frustrate the European chasers. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 47.5%. A win for Brest had a probability of 26.47% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (8.84%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rennes would win this match.

Result
BrestDrawRennes
26.47% (-1.313 -1.31) 26.03% (0.183 0.18) 47.5% (1.131 1.13)
Both teams to score 50.04% (-1.52 -1.52)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.31% (-1.509 -1.51)53.69% (1.509 1.51)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.82% (-1.285 -1.29)75.18% (1.285 1.29)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.65% (-1.859 -1.86)35.35% (1.858 1.86)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.89% (-1.984 -1.98)72.11% (1.985 1.99)
Rennes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.39% (-0.124 -0.12)22.6% (0.123 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.78% (-0.18000000000001 -0.18)56.22% (0.18 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Brest 26.47%
    Rennes 47.5%
    Draw 26.02%
BrestDrawRennes
1-0 @ 8.31% (0.072999999999999 0.07)
2-1 @ 6.42% (-0.3 -0.3)
2-0 @ 4.32% (-0.185 -0.19)
3-1 @ 2.23% (-0.225 -0.23)
3-2 @ 1.66% (-0.174 -0.17)
3-0 @ 1.5% (-0.145 -0.15)
Other @ 2.03%
Total : 26.47%
1-1 @ 12.35% (0.06 0.06)
0-0 @ 7.99% (0.462 0.46)
2-2 @ 4.78% (-0.24 -0.24)
Other @ 0.91%
Total : 26.02%
0-1 @ 11.88% (0.65 0.65)
1-2 @ 9.19% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
0-2 @ 8.84% (0.45 0.45)
1-3 @ 4.55% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
0-3 @ 4.38% (0.207 0.21)
2-3 @ 2.37% (-0.128 -0.13)
1-4 @ 1.69% (-0.01 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.63% (0.072 0.07)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 47.5%

How you voted: Brest vs Rennes

Brest
29.0%
Draw
29.0%
Rennes
41.9%
31
Head to Head
Aug 31, 2022 8pm
gameweek 5
Rennes
3-1
Brest
Rodon (53'), Terrier (89'), Doue (90+1')
Assignon (61'), Tait (86')
Honorat (57')
Feb 6, 2022 4pm
gameweek 23
Rennes
2-0
Brest
Laborde (20'), Terrier (90')
Martin (1'), Santamaria (31'), Terrier (59')
Aug 15, 2021 2pm
gameweek 2
Brest
1-1
Rennes
Le Douaron (90+1')
Honorat (39'), Brassier (44')
Guirassy (84')
Bourigeaud (44'), Ugochukwu (80'), Traore (88')
Jan 17, 2021 12pm
gameweek 20
Brest
1-2
Rennes
Honorat (4')
Herelle (84')
Bourigeaud (7'), Grenier (77' pen.)
Bourigeaud (56')
Oct 31, 2020 4pm
gameweek 9
Rennes
2-1
Brest
Da Silva (66'), Aguerd (70')
Henrique (32')
Honorat (57')
Honorat (64'), Perraud (72'), Charbonnier (90+1')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG12102036102632
2MonacoMonaco1282221101126
3Marseille1272327161123
4Lille115421811719
5Lyon125431916319
6Reims125342016418
7Nice1145221111017
8Lens124531312117
9Auxerre115152019116
10Toulouse124351314-115
11StrasbourgStrasbourg113442022-213
12Brest124171622-613
13Saint-EtienneSt Etienne124171125-1413
14Rennes113261318-511
15NantesNantes112451417-310
16Angers112451320-710
17Le HavreLe Havre11308823-159
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier122191132-217


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