Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 41.15%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 33.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Toronto win was 0-1 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.