With Slovakia the clear favourites to top the group, neither of these sides can afford defeat in their opening fixture. A draw may not prove beneficial, especially for Kazakhstan, but we feel that a low-scoring stalemate is the most likely outcome on Friday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.94%) and 2-0 (5.24%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 1-2 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kazakhstan would win this match.

Result
Kazakhstan	Draw	Azerbaijan
41.56% ( 0.09)	22.62% ( -0.01)	35.81% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 66.59% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.87% (

0.03)

34.13% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.98% (

0.03)

56.01% (

-0.03)

Kazakhstan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.88% (

0.05)

17.12% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.67% (

0.08)

47.33% (

-0.08)

Azerbaijan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.34% (

-0.03)

19.66% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.36% (

-0.05)

51.63% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Kazakhstan 41.56%

Azerbaijan 35.81%

Draw 22.62%

Kazakhstan	Draw	Azerbaijan
2-1 @ 8.53% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.94% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.24% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.02% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.08% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.08% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.21% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.8% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.36% ( 0.01) 4-3 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 3.32% Total : 41.56%	1-1 @ 9.66% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.94% 0-0 @ 3.37% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.21% ( 0) Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.62%	1-2 @ 7.86% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.26% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.76% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.53% ( -0) 0-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.35% Total : 35.81%