Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 74.11%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 9.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.73%) and 3-0 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.57%), while for a Chaves win it was 0-1 (3.09%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Chaves |
74.11% ( -0.18) | 16% ( 0.1) | 9.89% ( 0.08) |
Both teams to score 49.38% ( -0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.53% ( -0.23) | 37.46% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.31% ( -0.25) | 59.69% ( 0.25) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.35% ( -0.1) | 8.65% ( 0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.18% ( -0.24) | 29.82% ( 0.24) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
54.05% ( -0.01) | 45.94% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.32% ( -0.01) | 81.68% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Chaves |
2-0 @ 11.9% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9.73% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 9.71% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.55% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 5.94% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 4.62% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 2.91% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.02) 6-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.37% Total : 74.1% | 1-1 @ 7.57% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.6% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.86% Total : 16% | 0-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 1.72% Total : 9.89% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 37 |
2 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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