MX23RW : Tuesday, March 11 18:19:48| >> :300:86500:86500:
Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 4
Mar 1, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval
Newtown logo

Caernarfon
1 - 0
Newtown

Gosset (37')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Sutton (90+5')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Newtown AFC.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Caernarfon 1-8 New Saints
Friday, February 23 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Newtown AFC

All competitions
Last Game: Newtown 1-5 Bala Town
Saturday, February 24 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 39.18%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 37.62% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.34%) and 0-2 (5.22%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawNewtown AFC
37.62% (0.595 0.59) 23.19% (0.165 0.16) 39.18% (-0.764 -0.76)
Both teams to score 64.59% (-0.60000000000001 -0.6)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.18% (-0.8 -0.8)36.82% (0.794 0.79)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.01% (-0.872 -0.87)58.99% (0.867 0.87)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.01% (-0.072000000000003 -0.07)19.99% (0.067 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.83% (-0.114 -0.11)52.17% (0.10899999999999 0.11)
Newtown AFC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.73% (-0.68000000000001 -0.68)19.27% (0.676 0.68)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49% (-1.132 -1.13)51% (1.128 1.13)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 37.62%
    Newtown AFC 39.18%
    Draw 23.19%
Caernarfon TownDrawNewtown AFC
2-1 @ 8.22% (0.11 0.11)
1-0 @ 6.2% (0.225 0.23)
2-0 @ 4.99% (0.172 0.17)
3-1 @ 4.41% (0.051 0.05)
3-2 @ 3.63% (-0.037 -0.04)
3-0 @ 2.68% (0.087 0.09)
4-1 @ 1.78% (0.017 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.46% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.08% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 3.17%
Total : 37.62%
1-1 @ 10.21% (0.16 0.16)
2-2 @ 6.77% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
0-0 @ 3.85% (0.148 0.15)
3-3 @ 1.99% (-0.064 -0.06)
Other @ 0.37%
Total : 23.19%
1-2 @ 8.41% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-1 @ 6.34% (0.111 0.11)
0-2 @ 5.22% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-3 @ 4.62% (-0.128 -0.13)
2-3 @ 3.72% (-0.112 -0.11)
0-3 @ 2.87% (-0.074 -0.07)
1-4 @ 1.9% (-0.095 -0.1)
2-4 @ 1.53% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-4 @ 1.18% (-0.057 -0.06)
Other @ 3.41%
Total : 39.18%

Head to Head
Oct 7, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 11
Newtown
4-0
Caernarfon
Williams (40', 45+3', 71'), Sears (85')
Evans (51'), Sutton (57'), Cowans (73'), Sears (77'), Mills-Evans (89'), Jones (90+3')

Donohue (90+5')
Aug 18, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 2
Caernarfon
2-1
Newtown
Mooney (40'), Lloyd (90+1')
Clarke (45+4'), Davies (53'), Mooney (60'), Thomas (84')
Davies (82')
Williams (90+10')
Evans (18'), Roberts (68'), Ismail (80'), Boakye (84')
Dec 2, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Caernarfon
2-3
Newtown
O'Rourke (30'), Edwards (62')
Robles (8'), Williams (27'), Rushton (53')
Aug 30, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 4
Newtown
2-1
Caernarfon
Rushton (3'), Williams (23')
Wynne (55')
Williams (49'), Wynne (73')
Oct 23, 2021 5.15pm
Gameweek 10
Newtown
1-0
Caernarfon
Mwandwe (45+2')
Roberts (45'), (88'), Jones (90+5')

Hughes (40'), Edwards (42'), John Williams (58'), Jones (88'), Evans (90+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
Championship Round
1The New SaintsNew Saints27220576284866
2Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont27166548272154
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest27139535191648
4Cardiff MUCardiff MU27125104137441
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon27125104444041
6Bala TownBala Town2771193434032
Relegation Round
1Barry Town UnitedBarry2711794246-440
2Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay271051239291035
3Flint Town UnitedFlint Town2793153754-1730
4Briton Ferry2774164257-1525
5Newtown AFCNewtown2767143052-2225
6Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2752202263-4117
 
Regular Season
1The New SaintsNew Saints22170561263551
2Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont22155242162650
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest22117429111840
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon2210483535034
5Bala TownBala Town2271142821732
6Cardiff MUCardiff MU229583229332
7Barry Town UnitedBarry228683238-630
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay2275103226626
9Briton Ferry2263133345-1221
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town2262142747-2020
11Newtown AFCNewtown2254132446-2219
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2242161853-3514
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!