In the second leg of their Conference League round of 16 playoff tie, Jagiellonia Bialystok will host Backa Topola at Chorten Arena on Thursday when they hope to maintain their advantage.
The home side won the first leg 3-1 on February 13 despite Prestige Mboungou giving Thursday's visitors a 1-0 lead, but Jesus Imaz's first-half equaliser was followed by two late strikes that put his team in a commanding position.
Match preview
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Jagiellonia Bialystok were dominant in the first leg, producing five big chances and 2.28 xG, as well as 11 shots from the inside of the penalty area.
The Polish side are tied on 41 points with first-placed Lech Poznan at the top of the Polish Ekstraklasa, and will be looking to win the top flight for a second consecutive season.
Though boss Adrian Siemieniec will be pleased that his side are still in the Conference League, he will feel disappointed that they failed to qualify automatically for the round of 16 considering they ended the league phase in ninth with 11 points, missing out on the top eight due to inferior goal difference compared to Cercle Brugge.
Jaga's form in recent weeks has been strong, with the club winning four, drawing two and losing two of their last eight and going unbeaten in their prior 15, emerging victorious ten times.
The hosts are also undefeated at home in 11 matches and have only been beaten by a margin of three or more goals once in their 14 fixtures in European competitions at Chorten Arena.
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Backa Topola's 28th-minute goal in the first leg was their final shot until the 83rd minute, and their tally of five attempts only totalled 0.25 xG.
Manager Jovan Damjanovic's team have conceded 11 goals in their last four, as well as nine in their past three Conference League games.
The hosts are currently 11th in the Serbian top flight with 28 points from 23 matches having been beaten on 11 occasions, whereas they finished third in 2023-24.
Damjanovic's side come into the second leg on the back of four consecutive defeats, and they have only won two of their seven games in the Conference League, losing four and drawing one.
The Lions have achieved victory just once in their last eight outings on the road and have failed to win seven of their eight away matches in Europe, losing six and drawing one in that time.
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Team News
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Jagiellonia Bialystok will be without centre-back Adrian Dieguez, and his absence could mean Mateusz Skrzypczak and Enzo Ebosse will start in the centre of defence.
Jaroslaw Kubicki and Leon Flach could be stationed in a midfield two, while wingers Miguel Villar Miki and Darko Churlinov may flank striker Afimico Pululu.
As for Backa Topola, midfielders Ivan Milosavljevic and Petar Stanic will have to push forward in support of attackers Stefan Jovanovic, Marko Lazetic and Vieljeux Prestige Mboungou.
In defence, Damjanovic could select a back four consisting of Mateja Dordevic, Milos Degenek, Luka Capan and Viktor Radojevic.
Jagiellonia Bialystok possible starting lineup:
Abramowicz; Wojtuszek, Skrzypczak, Ebosse, Moutinho; Kubicki, Flach; Miki, Imaz, Churlinov; Pulu
Backa Topola possible starting lineup:
Ilic; Dordevic, Degenek, Capan, Radojevic; Milosavljevic, Radin, Stanic; Jovanovic, Lazetic, Mboungou
We say: Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 Backa Topola (Jagiellonia Bialystok win 5-2 on aggregate)
The hosts boast a sizeable advantage and have no incentive to push forward, whereas the visitors will almost certainly leave themselves exposed at the back when trying to overturn their two-goal deficit.
Additionally, Jagiellonia Bialystok are in much stronger form than opponents Backa Topola, who have struggled for wins in recent weeks, and it is difficult to see the home side failing to advance to the round of 16.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
