Both yet to tick the Grand Slam box off of their checklist, dreams of French Open glory will be dashed for one of Alexander Zverev or Holger Rune in Monday's fourth-round contest.
The German came up trumps in an epic five-setter with Tallon Griekspoor in round three, while his Scandinavian foe sank lucky loser Jozef Kovalik in straight sets.
Match preview
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One day after his trial for alleged domestic abuse began, Zverev was perhaps understandably not completely on song against Dutch 26th seed Griekspoor, whose delicate drop shots deceived the German throughout their gripping four-hour and 14-minute battle.
The fourth seed was on the cusp of more Roland-Garros agony when Griekspoor established a 4-1 lead in the final set with a double break, but the never-say-die Zverev astoundingly fought back and blew away the beleaguered Dutchman in the final tie-breaker to triumph 3-6 6-4 6-2 4-6 7-6[3].
Even when his match-winning ace was originally called out, Zverev still had his arms held aloft in celebration as the chair umpire confirmed that his strike was good, and the German paid tribute to the "unbelievably dangerous" Griekspoor while revelling in another French Open third-round success.
The reigning Italian Open champion has now been present at every Roland Garros fourth round since 2018 - losing just one of those six contests and winning each of his last three - and both David Goffin and 14-time winner Rafael Nadal fell to his superiority in the earlier rounds.
Playing some of his best tennis since that horrific ankle injury against Nadal in the 2022 French Open semi-finals, Zverev is also three-for-three in tie-breakers at the 2024 tournament, and Saturday's success improved his Roland-Garros five-set record to a staggering 9-1.
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However, the 27-year-old's more youthful foe Rune is also well-versed in coming up trumps in such engrossing contests, edging out Flavio Cobolli in a fifth-set tie-breaker after sending Dan Evans packing in his opening tie without too much of a struggle.
The manner of the 21-year-old's win over Kovalik was much more straightforward, as thanks in no small part to some tremendous play at the net, Rune marched to a 7-5 6-1 7-6[2] against the world number 145 in just over three hours.
Eight double faults made Rune's success slightly trickier than it should have been, but he won a striking 45% of points behind the first serve of Kovalik, and his nail-biting third-set triumph also means that the Dane has won an incredible 13 tie-breakers on the bounce.
Now set to compete in the Roland Garros for the third year running, Rune was a losing quarter-finalist in the 2022 and 2023 editions and is yet to progress to the final four of any Grand Slam, while also losing his last two ATP Tour finals at Rome 2023 and Brisbane this year.
The former loss came at the hands of Daniil Medvedev, whom he could reunite with in the quarter-finals should he earn a surprise scalp over Zverev, who is also vying to meet either the Russian or Alex de Minaur with a semi-final place at stake.
Tournament so far
Alexander Zverev:
First round: vs. Rafael Nadal 6-3 7-6[5] 6-3
Second round: vs. David Goffin 7-6[4] 6-2 6-2
Third round: vs. Tallon Griekspoor 3-6 6-4 6-2 4-6 7-6[3]
Holger Rune:
First round: vs. Dan Evans 6-4 6-4 6-4
Second round: vs. Flavio Cobolli 6-4 6-3 3-6 3-6 7-6[7]
Third round: vs. Jozef Kovalik 7-5 6-1 7-6[2]
Head To Head
BMW Open (2022) - Last 16: Rune wins 6-3 6-2
Only once before have Zverev and Rune pitted their wits against one another on the ATP Tour, meeting in the last 16 of the 2022 BMW Open in Munich, which was appropriately fought on clay.
On that occasion, the fledgling Scandinavian was a dominant 6-3 6-2 victor in one hour and 40 minutes, saving six of the seven break points that Zverev fashioned against him while converting four of his own.
At the time, Rune was just 18 years old and had never beaten a top-10 player before, but his overall win rate of 63.3% for the 2024 season is inferior to Zverev's 75.7%.
We say: Zverev to win in five sets
Undoubtedly one of the toughest fourth-round ties to call, Zverev was guilty of some shoddy play on his forehand side during his slog with Griekspoor but flaunted his excellent powers of recovery, while Rune's record in tie-breakers is simply phenomenal.
The Dane also has previous when it comes to stunning Zverev on clay, but given the German's overall form in 2024 and record in five-setters, we still expect the fourth seed to prevail - just - as Rune experiences another dose of quarter-final misery.
Ben Knapton
