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Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's French Open semi-final between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Seeking to add a French Open final to his CV after claiming world number one status, Jannik Sinner reunites with fellow fierce competitor Carlos Alcaraz on Court Philippe-Chatrier in Friday's semi-final.

The Italian trailblazer defeated Grigor Dimitrov in three sets to progress to the final four, while Alcaraz is now a first-time Roland-Garros semi-finalist thanks to his beating of Stefanos Tsitsipas.


Match preview

Carlos Alcaraz pictured at the French Open on May 26, 2024© Reuters

Five times Alcaraz had squared up to Tsitsipas before meeting in the French Open quarters, and five times the Spaniard had come up trumps against his Greek foe, who was facing both precedent and the unstoppable Alcaraz forehand on June 4.

After ceding the first two sets on poorly-executed drop shots, Tsitsipas was coincidentally sent packing by a delightful similar shot from Alcaraz, who maintained his 100% record over the Greek with a 6-3 7-6[3] 6-4 victory in just two hours and 15 minutes.

Despite still donning protective strapping around his right forearm, the reigning Wimbledon champion blasted his cross-court forehands in his trademark manner and ceded just two break points throughout the battle, while taking four of the six that came his way.

A fifth Grand Slam semi-final now awaits the 21-year-old, who has two victories and two defeats to show from his previous four such encounters, losing to eventual champion Novak Djokovic at this stage last year, albeit while being blighted by injury in the second half of the contest.

Fast-forward 12 months, and the Spaniard has more or less shaken off the arm injury that scuppered his dreams of Madrid Open and Italian Open glory, and he has dropped just one set so far en route to the Roland-Garros semis, being taken to four by Dutch qualifier Jesper de Jong.

Jannik Sinner reacts at the French Open in June 2024© Reuters

Likewise, Sinner also comes into Friday's mouthwatering battle with four straight-sets victories and one four-setter under his belt from the 2024 edition, recovering from a slow start against Corentin Moutet in round four before asserting his dominance over Grigor Dimitrov with relative ease.

With two hours and 29 minutes gone, Sinner punched his ticket to the semis with a 6-2 6-4 7-6[3] triumph over the Bulgarian, who gradually improved over the course of the contest, albeit not to the level capable of troubling the soon-to-be world number one.

Owing to Djokovic's withdrawal with a knee problem, Sinner is guaranteed to become the first Italian man in history to rise to the summit of the ATP Rankings - writing another page of tennis history for his nation - and only 28 men before him have also proudly claimed to be world number one.

In addition to his imminent coronation, Sinner - who like Alcaraz also arrived in Paris on the back of some injury struggles - is a perfect 12-0 in major tournaments this year, and the statistics did the talking against Dimitrov, where the Australian Open champion only committed 20 unforced errors compared to the Bulgarian's 49.

Even a semi-final exit would represent a new personal best for Sinner at the French Open, having only ever gone as far as the quarter-finals in 2020, but a shot at glory against Casper Ruud or Alexander Zverev is on offer for the victor of Friday's colossal contest.


Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. JJ Wolf 6-1 6-2 6-1
Second round: vs. Jesper de Jong 6-3 6-4 2-6 6-2
Third round: Sebastian Korda 6-4 7-6[5] 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-3 6-3 6-1
Quarter-final: vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3 7-6[3] 6-4

Jannik Sinner:

First round: vs. Christopher Eubanks 6-3 6-3 6-4
Second round: vs. Richard Gasquet 6-4 6-2 6-4
Third round: vs. Pavel Kotov 6-4 6-4 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Corentin Moutet 2-6 6-3 6-2 6-1
Quarter-final: vs. Grigor Dimitrov 6-2 6-4 7-6[3]


Head To Head

Indian Wells Masters (2024) - Semi-finals: Alcaraz wins 1-6 6-3 6-2
China Open (2023) - Semi-finals: Sinner wins 7-6[4] 6-1
Miami Open (2023) - Semi-finals: Sinner wins 6-7[4] 6-4 6-2
Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Semi-finals: Alcaraz wins 7-6[4] 6-3
US Open (2022) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-7[7] 6-7[0] 7-5 6-3
Croatia Open (2022) - Final: Sinner wins 6-7[5] 6-1 6-1
Wimbledon (2022) - Last 16: Sinner wins 6-1 6-4 6-7[8] 6-3
Paris Masters (2021) - Second round: Alcaraz wins 7-6[1] 7-5

Forming a fascinating on-court rivalry, Alcaraz and Sinner will cross paths for the ninth time at the top level on Friday, and absolutely nothing can separate the two Grand Slam winners in the head-to-head column.

Indeed, both men have clinched four victories over the other in their fledgling careers, although Alcaraz bested his Italian foe in their only 2024 meeting to date at Indian Wells, recovering from a one-set deficit to reach the final and ultimately win the title.

However, the soon-to-be world number one triumphed in their first clay contest at the 2022 Croatia Open, also coming back from a set down to earn a 6-7[5] 6-1 6-1 victory in the final, but he has not managed to advance to another championship match on the dirt since.


SM words green background

We say: Sinner to win in five sets

Talk about an impossible match to call. Both Alcaraz and Sinner have been near-faultless in their Roland-Garros campaigns so far after battling back from their physical problems, and neither has managed to build up head-to-head superiority over the other.

Alcaraz's ferocious forehand troubles all players on all courts, but Sinner's exceptional serving and brilliance under pressure - saving an ATP-high 75.3% break points over the past year - just tips the scales in his favour for us.

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Written by
Ben Knapton

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