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Preview: Jasmine Paolini vs. Mirra Andreeva - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Thursday's French Open semi-final between Jasmine Paolini and Mirra Andreeva, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Two first-time Grand Slam semi-finalists will collide with a French Open final spot on the line on Thursday, as Jasmine Paolini and Mirra Andreeva face off on Court Philippe-Chatrier.

Both women earned shock scalps in Wednesday's quarter-final ties, as Paolini eliminated Elena Rybakina from Roland-Garros, while her 17-year-old foe magnificently overcame Aryna Sabalenka in three.


Match preview

Jasmine Paolini reacts at the French Open on June 5, 2024© Reuters

At the start of the 2024 season, Italian 12th seed Paolini only had a handful of second-round appearances to shout about at Grand Slam events. Six months later, and the world number 15 will now be competing in a major semi-final for the first time in her nine-year career.

Immediately capitalising on Rybakina's noticeable physical issues on Wednesday lunchtime, Paolini raced to a first-set success over the former Wimbledon winner before coming under the cosh and being taken to a decider, where there were no holds to report in the opening four games.

However, unforced errors soon reared their ugly heads again for Rybakina, who fatally lost serve in the 11th game before Paolini saw out a stunning 6-2 4-6 6-4 victory on Court Philippe-Chatrier, taking just over two hours to advance to her inaugural Grand Slam semi-final.

Previously achieving her best major result at this year's Australian Open - going out in round four - the beaming 28-year-old benefitted from 48 unforced errors from Rybakina on Wednesday, while committing just 20 of her own, and she is just the fourth Italian woman to reach the Roland-Garros semis in the Open Era.

Also set to break into the top 10 of the WTA Rankings thanks to her fabulous French Open singles run, Paolini's feats are even more noteworthy when her lack of recovery time is factored into the equation; the Italian reached the semi-finals of the women's doubles with Sara Errani mere hours after upsetting Rybakina.

Mirra Andreeva reacts at the French Open on June 5, 2024© Reuters

Paolini and her upcoming foe Andreeva could have met in two separate French Open semis, as the Russian teenage sensation was due to compete in her doubles quarter-final with Vera Zvonareva later on Wednesday evening, but she understandably pulled out of that clash after shocking second seed Sabalenka.

The 2007-born talent did not let losing a first-set lead get into her head against Sabalenka, who was evidently not feeling at her best throughout Wednesday's battle, but Andreeva was in no sort of merciful mood as she roared to a 6-7[5] 6-4 6-4 comeback triumph in just under two and a half hours.

Sabalenka managed to save one match point against her laser-focused foe, who mixed up ferocious groundstrokes with dainty drop shots, but after fizzing a backhand past the world number two for her second such opening, Andreeva delicately lifted a semi-clinching lob over a beleaguered Sabalenka's head.

Now the youngest woman to reach a Grand Slam semi-final since Martina Hingis in 1997, Andreeva's meteoric rise is showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon, and reaching her first top-level final on the Parisian red clay would be one for the personal annals indeed.

Of course, Paolini and Andreeva's remarkable runs means that the French Open is guaranteed to see a first-time Grand Slam finalist, but one of them will have to navigate their way past Coco Gauff or three-time winner Iga Swiatek to pose with the Suzanne Lenglen Cup.


Tournament so far

Jasmine Paolini:

First round: vs. Daria Saville 6-3 6-4
Second round: vs. Hailey Baptiste 6-4 7-6[6]
Third round: vs. Bianca Andreescu 6-1 3-6 6-0
Round of 16: vs. Elina Avanesyan 4-6 6-0 6-1
Quarter-final: vs. Elena Rybakina 6-2 4-6 6-4

Mirra Andreeva:

First round: vs. Emina Bektas 6-2 6-3
Second round: vs. Victoria Azarenka 6-3 3-6 7-5
Third round: vs. Peyton Stearns 6-2 6-1
Round of 16: vs. Varvara Gracheva 7-5 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Aryna Sabalenka 6-7[5] 6-4 6-4


Head To Head

Madrid Open (2024) - Last 16: Andreeva wins 7-6[2] 6-4

It has been just a matter of weeks since Paolini and Andreeva clashed for the first time in a WTA Tour singles match, squaring off in the last 16 of the Madrid Open on the Russian's 17th birthday on April 29.

The best kind of present that Andreeva could have wished for materialised, as she prevailed over the Italian in straight sets to reach the quarter-finals, but Paolini certainly kept the scoreline respectable.

However, the pair had already met in the doubles last 32 two days beforehand, where Andreeva and Zvonareva coincidentally bested Paolini and Errani in two, but there will be no repeat of that four-woman tie in this year's semis.


SM words green background

We say: Andreeva to win in three sets

Both unfancied quarter-final victors were the beneficiaries of uncharacteristic errors from their physically-drained opponents, but despite also gunning for doubles glory, Paolini remains in tip-top shape.

However, against a fresher Andreeva who boasts a devastating drop shot, the Italian may just fall short as her teenage counterpart earns herself a shot at Roland-Garros glory.

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Written by
Ben Knapton

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Mirra Andreeva reacts at the French Open on June 5, 2024
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