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Championship header 2

League Two
AFC Wimbledon
League Two | Gameweek 25
Dec 29, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Kingsmeadow
Colchester United

AFC Wimbledon
5 - 3
Colchester

Davison (4', 52'), Lewis (42', 90+2'), Al-Hamadi (67')
Davison (71'), Biler (80'), Bugiel (81')
FT(HT: 2-2)
McGeehan (7'), Taylor (25'), Dallison (90+4')
Chilvers (39'), McGeehan (71')
McGeehan (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League Two clash between AFC Wimbledon and Colchester United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Sutton
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in League Two

Colchester United

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: MK Dons 1-0 Colchester
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in League Two

We said: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Colchester United

 Both sides suffered disappointing defeats on Boxing Day, so they will be keen to return with victories on Friday. However, Colchester have lost six of their last seven matches to slide perilously closer to the relegation zone. AFC Wimbledon, on the other hand, may view their surprising home defeat to Sutton as a blip. We expect them to win here and potentially move back into the playoff positions as a result. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 63.65%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 16.19%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
AFC WimbledonDrawColchester United
63.65% (0.496 0.5) 20.16% (-0.149 -0.15) 16.19% (-0.349 -0.35)
Both teams to score 53.78% (-0.278 -0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.63% (0.017000000000003 0.02)41.36% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.24% (0.016000000000005 0.02)63.76% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.66% (0.143 0.14)12.34% (-0.145 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.84% (0.302 0.3)38.16% (-0.304 -0.3)
Colchester United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.35% (-0.419 -0.42)38.64% (0.417 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.61% (-0.403 -0.4)75.39% (0.40000000000001 0.4)
Score Analysis
    AFC Wimbledon 63.64%
    Colchester United 16.19%
    Draw 20.16%
AFC WimbledonDrawColchester United
2-0 @ 10.43% (0.1 0.1)
1-0 @ 9.98% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.92% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 7.28% (0.116 0.12)
3-1 @ 6.92% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
4-0 @ 3.81% (0.082 0.08)
4-1 @ 3.62% (0.037 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.29% (-0.023 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.72% (-0.002 -0)
5-0 @ 1.59% (0.042 0.04)
5-1 @ 1.52% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 63.64%
1-1 @ 9.49% (-0.063000000000001 -0.06)
0-0 @ 4.77% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-2 @ 4.72% (-0.059 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.04% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 20.16%
0-1 @ 4.53% (-0.056 -0.06)
1-2 @ 4.51% (-0.082 -0.08)
0-2 @ 2.16% (-0.052 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.5% (-0.036 -0.04)
1-3 @ 1.43% (-0.043 -0.04)
Other @ 2.07%
Total : 16.19%

How you voted: AFC Wimbledon vs Colchester

AFC Wimbledon
85.7%
Draw
0.0%
Colchester United
14.3%
7
Head to Head
Aug 15, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 3
Colchester
0-2
AFC Wimbledon

Egbo (83'), Ihionvien (89'), Read (90+5')
Tilley (54', 85')
Ogundere (65'), Tilley (67'), Davison (74')
Dec 29, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 24
Colchester
1-2
AFC Wimbledon
Akinde (51' pen.)
Davison (67'), Chislett (89')
> Preview
Oct 1, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 12
AFC Wimbledon
2-1
Colchester
Davison (47', 66' pen.)
Appiah (18')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall24174348212755
2Crewe AlexandraCrewe251110433221143
3Salford City24126629191042
4Port Vale2511862925441
5AFC Wimbledon23124735191640
6Notts County24117638261240
7Doncaster RoversDoncaster2511773530540
8Bradford CityBradford2410863327638
9Grimsby Town25121123640-437
10Chesterfield249783829934
11MK Dons2310493631534
12Bromley2481063530534
13Cheltenham TownCheltenham2587103438-431
14Gillingham2393112224-230
15BarrowBarrow2477102326-328
16Harrogate TownHarrogate2684142337-1428
17Fleetwood TownFleetwood226972828027
18Colchester UnitedColchester2451272828027
19Newport CountyNewport2375113040-1026
20Accrington StanleyAccrington2367103240-825
21Swindon TownSwindon26510113141-1025
22Tranmere RoversTranmere2467111837-1925
23Morecambe2455142239-1720
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle2446141938-1918
> League Two Full Table


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