La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 32

Apr 29, 2023 at 5.30pm UK

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Real Madrid
4 - 2
Almeria

Benzema (5', 17', 42' pen.), Rodrygo (47')
Junior (37'), Camavinga (74')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Lazaro (45+1'), Robertone (61')
Lazaro (66'), Mendes (67')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Girona 4-2 Real Madrid
Tuesday, April 25 at 6.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Almeria

All competitions

Last Game: Getafe 1-2 Almeria
Wednesday, April 26 at 6.30pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Real Madrid 3-1 Almeria

Almeria, despite their victory last time out, have found it difficult on their travels this season, and they will be taking on a Real Madrid side looking to bounce back from a loss. The hosts will again be missing some key players, but we are expecting them to record their 21st league victory of the campaign on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 84.22%. A draw had a probability of 9.9% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 5.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.06%) and 3-1 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.16%), while for an Almeria win it was 1-2 (1.82%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Real Madrid	Draw	Almeria
84.22% ( -0.92)	9.88% ( 0.53)	5.9% ( 0.39)

Both teams to score 56.37% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

79.86% (

-1.18)

20.14% (

1.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

61.7% (

-1.7)

38.3% (

1.7)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

96.64% (

-0.3)

3.36% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

85.23% (

-1.05)

14.77% (

1.05)

Almeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.33% (

0.01)

41.67% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.85% (

0.01)

78.15% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Real Madrid 84.22%

Almeria 5.9%

Draw 9.88%

Real Madrid	Draw	Almeria
3-0 @ 9.12% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.31) 3-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 7.73% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 7.06% ( 0.28) 4-1 @ 6.77% ( -0.11) 5-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.23) 1-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.31) 5-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 3.49% ( 0.04) 6-0 @ 2.97% ( -0.22) 4-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.04) 6-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.19) 5-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.09) 7-0 @ 1.44% ( -0.15) 7-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.13) 6-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.08) Other @ 5.03% Total : 84.22%	1-1 @ 4.16% ( 0.27) 2-2 @ 3.09% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 1.4% ( 0.13) 3-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.21% Total : 9.88%	1-2 @ 1.82% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.95% Total : 5.9%