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League One
Carlisle United
League One | Gameweek 28
Jan 13, 2024 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Oxford United

Carlisle
1 - 3
Oxford Utd

McCalmont (71')
Moxon (27'), Neal (31'), Mellish (43'), Garner (72')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Harris (39', 47'), Goodrham (67')
Bennett (53'), Smyth (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Oxford United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Exeter 2-1 Carlisle
Saturday, January 6 at 3pm in League One

Oxford United

All competitions
League One
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 2-0 Oxford Utd
Tuesday, January 9 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Carlisle United 1-2 Oxford United

 Carlisle have plenty of new faces in the squad at the moment which should provide the team with additional quality to cause problems this weekend. However, bedding several new players in at once is no easy feat, which could be the advantage that Oxford need to take three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.76%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 36.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawOxford United
37.76% (-0.064 -0.06) 26.15% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02) 36.1% (0.077999999999996 0.08)
Both teams to score 53.72% (0.055 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.18% (0.067999999999998 0.07)50.81% (-0.07 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.3% (0.060000000000002 0.06)72.7% (-0.060999999999993 -0.06)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.77% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)26.23% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.67% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)61.33% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Oxford United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.82% (0.079999999999998 0.08)27.18% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.42% (0.104 0.1)62.58% (-0.105 -0.1)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 37.76%
    Oxford United 36.1%
    Draw 26.14%
Carlisle UnitedDrawOxford United
1-0 @ 9.54% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.32% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.38% (-0.018999999999999 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.71% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 2.85% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.42% (0.0029999999999997 0)
4-1 @ 1.24% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 0.95% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 37.76%
1-1 @ 12.42% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.13% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.42% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.05% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 26.14%
0-1 @ 9.29% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.1% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 6.05% (0.011 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.52% (0.014 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.63% (0.011 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.35% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.15% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 36.1%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Oxford Utd

Carlisle United
28.6%
Draw
0.0%
Oxford United
71.4%
7
Head to Head
Aug 12, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 2
Oxford Utd
1-0
Carlisle
Harris (76')
Harris (39'), O'Donkor (90+6')

Guy (51'), McCalmont (59'), Back (62'), Huntington (73'), Mellish (90+6')
> Preview
Apr 30, 2016 3pm
Carlisle
0-2
Oxford Utd

Miller (66')
Maguire (4' pen.), Sercombe (74')
Maguire (18'), Wright (82')
Dec 12, 2015 3pm
Oxford Utd
1-1
Carlisle
MacDonald (34')
Dunkley (45' og.)
Joyce (18')
Mar 28, 2015 3pm
Oxford Utd
2-1
Carlisle
Hoban (38'), Vassell (80')
Baldock (54')
Corry (9')
Acrhibald-Henville (66'), Buddle (77')
Acrhibald-Henville (68')
Oct 25, 2014 3pm
Carlisle
2-1
Oxford Utd
Beck (73'), Asamoah (89')
Marrow (50')
Hylton (45')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Buccaneers
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Falcons
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham8710178922
2Wrexham9522147717
3Mansfield TownMansfield85211511417
4Stockport CountyStockport8431137615
5Lincoln CityLincoln8431137615
6Blackpool94321714315
7Barnsley94321513215
8Wycombe WanderersWycombe84221613314
9Stevenage942375214
10Exeter CityExeter841396313
11Bolton WanderersBolton84131313013
12Reading84131212013
13Charlton AthleticCharlton941499013
14Wigan AthleticWigan933395412
15Huddersfield TownHuddersfield94051211112
16Peterborough UnitedPeterborough93241417-311
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham9243710-310
18Bristol Rovers93151015-510
19Northampton TownNorthampton82241013-38
20Leyton Orient9225912-38
21Crawley TownCrawley8215512-77
22Burton Albion8044916-74
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury9117615-94
24Cambridge UnitedCambridge8017616-101
> League One Full Table


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