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Championship header 2

League One
Carlisle United
League One | Gameweek 28
Jan 13, 2024 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Oxford United

Carlisle
1 - 3
Oxford Utd

McCalmont (71')
Moxon (27'), Neal (31'), Mellish (43'), Garner (72')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Harris (39', 47'), Goodrham (67')
Bennett (53'), Smyth (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Oxford United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Exeter 2-1 Carlisle
Saturday, January 6 at 3pm in League One

Oxford United

All competitions
League One
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 2-0 Oxford Utd
Tuesday, January 9 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Carlisle United 1-2 Oxford United

 Carlisle have plenty of new faces in the squad at the moment which should provide the team with additional quality to cause problems this weekend. However, bedding several new players in at once is no easy feat, which could be the advantage that Oxford need to take three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.76%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 36.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawOxford United
37.76% (-0.064 -0.06) 26.15% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02) 36.1% (0.077999999999996 0.08)
Both teams to score 53.72% (0.055 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.18% (0.067999999999998 0.07)50.81% (-0.07 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.3% (0.060000000000002 0.06)72.7% (-0.060999999999993 -0.06)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.77% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)26.23% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.67% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)61.33% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Oxford United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.82% (0.079999999999998 0.08)27.18% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.42% (0.104 0.1)62.58% (-0.105 -0.1)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 37.76%
    Oxford United 36.1%
    Draw 26.14%
Carlisle UnitedDrawOxford United
1-0 @ 9.54% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.32% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.38% (-0.018999999999999 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.71% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 2.85% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.42% (0.0029999999999997 0)
4-1 @ 1.24% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 0.95% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 37.76%
1-1 @ 12.42% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.13% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.42% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.05% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 26.14%
0-1 @ 9.29% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.1% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 6.05% (0.011 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.52% (0.014 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.63% (0.011 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.35% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.15% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 36.1%

How you voted: Carlisle vs Oxford Utd

Carlisle United
28.6%
Draw
0.0%
Oxford United
71.4%
7
Head to Head
Aug 12, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 2
Oxford Utd
1-0
Carlisle
Harris (76')
Harris (39'), O'Donkor (90+6')

Guy (51'), McCalmont (59'), Back (62'), Huntington (73'), Mellish (90+6')
> Preview
Apr 30, 2016 3pm
Carlisle
0-2
Oxford Utd

Miller (66')
Maguire (4' pen.), Sercombe (74')
Maguire (18'), Wright (82')
Dec 12, 2015 3pm
Oxford Utd
1-1
Carlisle
MacDonald (34')
Dunkley (45' og.)
Joyce (18')
Mar 28, 2015 3pm
Oxford Utd
2-1
Carlisle
Hoban (38'), Vassell (80')
Baldock (54')
Corry (9')
Acrhibald-Henville (66'), Buddle (77')
Acrhibald-Henville (68')
Oct 25, 2014 3pm
Carlisle
2-1
Oxford Utd
Beck (73'), Asamoah (89')
Marrow (50')
Hylton (45')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham34247356223479
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe351911561332868
3Wrexham35208750282268
4Stockport CountyStockport361711852341862
5Charlton AthleticCharlton35179946311560
6Bolton WanderersBolton35186115751660
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield361771247331458
8Reading351510104945455
9Leyton Orient361651551371453
10Barnsley36157145051-152
11Blackpool35111595247548
12Stevenage35139133335-248
13Lincoln CityLincoln361210144845346
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham35128153941-244
15Wigan AthleticWigan351110143234-243
16Mansfield TownMansfield35118164148-741
17Northampton TownNorthampton361011153653-1741
18Exeter CityExeter34117163750-1340
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough35109165260-839
20Bristol Rovers35116183653-1739
21Burton Albion36712173653-1733
22Crawley TownCrawley3579193865-2730
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge3578203458-2429
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury3677223460-2628
> League One Full Table


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