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League One | Gameweek 45
Apr 29, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Portsmouth

Derby
1 - 1
Portsmouth

Collins (71')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bishop (24')
Towler (6'), Morrell (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Portsmouth, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby 1-0 Burton Albion
Saturday, April 22 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Portsmouth 1-0 Accrington
Saturday, April 22 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 1-1 Portsmouth

The two sides played out a goalless draw when they met in November, and with both sides proving tough to beat in recent weeks, we think that Saturday's meeting could also finish all square. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 53.54%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Portsmouth had a probability of 22.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Portsmouth win it was 0-1 (6.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawPortsmouth
53.54% (-0.00099999999999767 -0) 24.17% (0.00099999999999767 0) 22.28% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Both teams to score 51.34% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.14%49.85% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.15%71.85% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.45% (0.00099999999999056 0)18.55% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.2% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)49.79% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Portsmouth Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.03% (0.0019999999999953 0)36.96%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.24% (0.0010000000000012 0)73.75% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 53.54%
    Portsmouth 22.28%
    Draw 24.16%
Derby CountyDrawPortsmouth
1-0 @ 11.55%
2-0 @ 9.73%
2-1 @ 9.68% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
3-0 @ 5.47%
3-1 @ 5.44%
3-2 @ 2.71%
4-0 @ 2.3%
4-1 @ 2.29%
4-2 @ 1.14%
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 53.54%
1-1 @ 11.49%
0-0 @ 6.86%
2-2 @ 4.82%
Other @ 1%
Total : 24.16%
0-1 @ 6.82% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-2 @ 5.72% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 3.4%
1-3 @ 1.9%
2-3 @ 1.6%
0-3 @ 1.13%
Other @ 1.72%
Total : 22.28%

How you voted: Derby vs Portsmouth

Derby County
84.6%
Draw
7.7%
Portsmouth
7.7%
13
Head to Head
Nov 18, 2022 8pm
Aug 12, 2015 7.45pm
Apr 21, 2012 3pm
Portsmouth
1-2
Derby
Varney (74')
Kitson (42'), Varney (55'), Pearce (65')
Buxton (41'), Davies (78' pen.)
Davies (65')
Oct 29, 2011 3pm
Derby
3-1
Portsmouth
Ward (33'), Bryson (3'), Maguire (14')
Shackell (9')
Pearce (79')
Varney (86')
Feb 5, 2011 3pm
Portsmouth
1-1
Derby
Nugent (90')
Hogg (52'), De Laet (85')
Davies (34')
Davies (75'), Cywka (78')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148


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