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League One | Gameweek 45
Apr 29, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Portsmouth

Derby
1 - 1
Portsmouth

Collins (71')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bishop (24')
Towler (6'), Morrell (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Portsmouth, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby 1-0 Burton Albion
Saturday, April 22 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Portsmouth 1-0 Accrington
Saturday, April 22 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 1-1 Portsmouth

The two sides played out a goalless draw when they met in November, and with both sides proving tough to beat in recent weeks, we think that Saturday's meeting could also finish all square. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 53.54%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Portsmouth had a probability of 22.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Portsmouth win it was 0-1 (6.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawPortsmouth
53.54% (-0.00099999999999767 -0) 24.17% (0.00099999999999767 0) 22.28% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Both teams to score 51.34% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.14%49.85% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.15%71.85% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.45% (0.00099999999999056 0)18.55% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.2% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)49.79% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Portsmouth Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.03% (0.0019999999999953 0)36.96%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.24% (0.0010000000000012 0)73.75% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 53.54%
    Portsmouth 22.28%
    Draw 24.16%
Derby CountyDrawPortsmouth
1-0 @ 11.55%
2-0 @ 9.73%
2-1 @ 9.68% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
3-0 @ 5.47%
3-1 @ 5.44%
3-2 @ 2.71%
4-0 @ 2.3%
4-1 @ 2.29%
4-2 @ 1.14%
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 53.54%
1-1 @ 11.49%
0-0 @ 6.86%
2-2 @ 4.82%
Other @ 1%
Total : 24.16%
0-1 @ 6.82% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-2 @ 5.72% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 3.4%
1-3 @ 1.9%
2-3 @ 1.6%
0-3 @ 1.13%
Other @ 1.72%
Total : 22.28%

How you voted: Derby vs Portsmouth

Derby County
84.6%
Draw
7.7%
Portsmouth
7.7%
13
Head to Head
Nov 18, 2022 8pm
Aug 12, 2015 7.45pm
Apr 21, 2012 3pm
Portsmouth
1-2
Derby
Varney (74')
Kitson (42'), Varney (55'), Pearce (65')
Buxton (41'), Davies (78' pen.)
Davies (65')
Oct 29, 2011 3pm
Derby
3-1
Portsmouth
Ward (33'), Bryson (3'), Maguire (14')
Shackell (9')
Pearce (79')
Varney (86')
Feb 5, 2011 3pm
Portsmouth
1-1
Derby
Nugent (90')
Hogg (52'), De Laet (85')
Davies (34')
Davies (75'), Cywka (78')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham1292123111229
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe1282226161026
3Wrexham1374221101125
4Mansfield TownMansfield127322014624
5Lincoln CityLincoln137332016424
6Bolton WanderersBolton137242219323
7Huddersfield TownHuddersfield137151912722
8Barnsley136432118322
9Reading137152120122
10Stockport CountyStockport135622012821
11Exeter CityExeter126151310319
12Charlton AthleticCharlton135441514119
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough145362526-118
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham144551416-217
15Stevenage145271015-517
16Blackpool134452125-416
17Bristol Rovers135171520-516
18Northampton TownNorthampton134361720-315
19Wigan AthleticWigan133551211114
20Leyton Orient133281118-711
21Cambridge UnitedCambridge123181117-610
22Crawley TownCrawley133191225-1310
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1422101325-128
24Burton Albion120481325-124


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