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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 42.19%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 32.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.88%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Wrexham in this match.
Result | ||
Colchester United | Draw | Wrexham |
32.9% ( 0.09) | 24.9% ( 0.01) | 42.19% ( -0.11) |
Both teams to score 57.32% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.09% ( -0.01) | 45.9% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.79% ( -0.01) | 68.21% ( 0.01) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.25% ( 0.05) | 26.75% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.98% ( 0.07) | 62.02% ( -0.08) |
Wrexham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.24% ( -0.06) | 21.75% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.06% ( -0.09) | 54.93% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Colchester United | Draw | Wrexham |
2-1 @ 7.72% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.67% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.06% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.22% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.13% Total : 32.9% | 1-1 @ 11.7% 2-2 @ 5.89% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.82% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.9% | 1-2 @ 8.93% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.77% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 4.54% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.14% ( -0) Other @ 2.46% Total : 42.2% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 30 |
2 | Walsall | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 26 |
3 | Notts County | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 26 |
4 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 26 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 24 |
6 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 22 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 22 |
8 | MK Dons | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 21 |
9 | BarrowBarrow | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 21 |
10 | Grimsby Town | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 21 |
11 | Gillingham | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 |
12 | Salford City | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 20 |
13 | AFC Wimbledon | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 19 |
14 | Newport CountyNewport | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 19 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 18 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 17 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 15 |
18 | Bromley | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 14 |
20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 13 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 12 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 8 |
24 | Morecambe | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 7 |
> League Two Full Table |