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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 42.19%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 32.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.88%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Wrexham in this match.
Result | ||
Colchester United | Draw | Wrexham |
32.9% ( 0.09) | 24.9% ( 0.01) | 42.19% ( -0.11) |
Both teams to score 57.32% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.09% ( -0.01) | 45.9% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.79% ( -0.01) | 68.21% ( 0.01) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.25% ( 0.05) | 26.75% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.98% ( 0.07) | 62.02% ( -0.08) |
Wrexham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.24% ( -0.06) | 21.75% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.06% ( -0.09) | 54.93% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Colchester United | Draw | Wrexham |
2-1 @ 7.72% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.67% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.06% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.22% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.13% Total : 32.9% | 1-1 @ 11.7% 2-2 @ 5.89% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.82% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.9% | 1-2 @ 8.93% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.77% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 4.54% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.14% ( -0) Other @ 2.46% Total : 42.2% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
> League Two Full Table |