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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 46.15%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 28.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.16%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Grimsby Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Grimsby Town | Draw | Morecambe |
46.15% ( -0.42) | 25.56% ( 0.14) | 28.29% ( 0.28) |
Both teams to score 52.81% ( -0.25) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.28% ( -0.42) | 50.72% ( 0.42) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.38% ( -0.38) | 72.62% ( 0.38) |
Grimsby Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.04% ( -0.37) | 21.97% ( 0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.74% ( -0.56) | 55.26% ( 0.56) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.67% ( -0) | 32.33% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.16% ( -0.01) | 68.84% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Grimsby Town | Draw | Morecambe |
1-0 @ 10.76% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 8.16% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 4.65% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 4.12% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.76% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.3% Total : 46.15% | 1-1 @ 12.15% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 7.1% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.55% | 0-1 @ 8.02% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 6.86% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 2.58% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.7% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.64% Total : 28.29% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 43 |
2 | Port Vale | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 37 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 36 |
4 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 35 |
5 | Chesterfield | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 23 | 13 | 34 |
6 | AFC Wimbledon | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 33 |
7 | Notts County | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 21 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 31 |
9 | MK Dons | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 30 |
10 | Gillingham | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 30 |
11 | Salford City | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 30 |
12 | Bradford CityBradford | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 28 |
13 | Bromley | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 27 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 27 |
15 | BarrowBarrow | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 26 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 26 |
17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 23 |
18 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 23 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 21 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 19 |
22 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 19 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 15 |
24 | Morecambe | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 14 |
> League Two Full Table |