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Serie A
Spezia Calcio logo
Serie A | Gameweek 35
May 13, 2023 at 5pm UK
Stadio Alberto Picco
Milan logo

Spezia
2 - 0
AC Milan

Wisniewski (75'), Esposito (85')
Amian (38')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Diaz (52')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Spezia and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Spezia

All competitions
Last Game: Cremonese 2-0 Spezia
Saturday, May 6 at 7.45pm in Serie A

AC Milan

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 0-2 Inter Milan
Wednesday, May 10 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Spezia 0-1 AC Milan

 Between two huge derbies and amid a worrying run of injuries, Milan may make heavy weather of seeing off their struggling hosts - particularly as the Rossoneri's second string have proved impotent when called upon this season. Spezia's woes in the final third can aid their cause, though; helping them edge to victory and stay in contention for a top-four finish. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 58.3%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 19.21%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.29%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.67%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-0 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.

Result
SpeziaDrawAC Milan
19.21% (-0.094999999999999 -0.09) 22.48% (0.071000000000002 0.07) 58.3% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Both teams to score 52.06% (-0.396 -0.4)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.38% (-0.449 -0.45)46.62% (0.448 0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.11% (-0.422 -0.42)68.89% (0.42100000000001 0.42)
Spezia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.74% (-0.364 -0.36)38.25% (0.364 0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.98% (-0.353 -0.35)75.02% (0.352 0.35)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.32% (-0.145 -0.14)15.68% (0.145 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.27% (-0.27 -0.27)44.73% (0.27 0.27)
Score Analysis
    Spezia 19.21%
    AC Milan 58.29%
    Draw 22.47%
SpeziaDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 5.76% (0.052 0.05)
2-1 @ 5.13% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-0 @ 2.77% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
3-1 @ 1.64% (-0.027 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.52% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 19.21%
1-1 @ 10.67% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 6% (0.112 0.11)
2-2 @ 4.75% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.025 -0.03)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 22.47%
0-1 @ 11.11% (0.15 0.15)
0-2 @ 10.29% (0.09 0.09)
1-2 @ 9.89% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
0-3 @ 6.36% (0.024 0.02)
1-3 @ 6.11% (-0.037 -0.04)
0-4 @ 2.95% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.94% (-0.048 -0.05)
1-4 @ 2.83% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-4 @ 1.36% (-0.029 -0.03)
0-5 @ 1.09% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
1-5 @ 1.05% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 58.29%

How you voted: Spezia vs AC Milan

Spezia
20.7%
Draw
17.2%
AC Milan
62.1%
58
Head to Head
Nov 5, 2022 7.45pm
gameweek 13
AC Milan
2-1
Spezia
Hernandez (21'), Giroud (89')
Bennacer (40')
Maldini (59')
Jan 17, 2022 5.30pm
gameweek 22
AC Milan
1-2
Spezia
Leao (45+1')
Kalulu (22'), Gabbia (62')
Agudelo (64'), Gyasi (90+6')
Gyasi (19'), Kiwior (32'), Provedel (44'), Maggiore (65'), Bastoni (90+2')
Sep 25, 2021 2pm
gameweek 6
Spezia
1-2
AC Milan
Verde (80')
Sala (25'), Nikolaou (89')
Maldini (48'), Diaz (86')
Maldini (58'), Hernandez (90')
Feb 13, 2021 7.45pm
gameweek 22
Spezia
2-0
AC Milan
Maggiore (56'), Bastoni (67')
Vignali (23'), Bastoni (25'), Erlic (58')

Dalot (65')
Oct 4, 2020 5pm
gameweek 3
AC Milan
3-0
Spezia
Leao (57', 78'), Hernandez (76')
Calhanoglu (47')

Ricci (32'), Gyasi (40')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta16121339172237
2Napoli16112324111335
3Inter Milan15104140152534
4Fiorentina1594228111731
5Lazio1610153023731
6Juventus16610026121428
7Bologna156722118325
8AC Milan156542416823
9Udinese166281925-620
10Empoli164751416-219
11Torino165471720-319
12Roma164481823-516
13Genoa163761324-1116
14Lecce164481027-1716
15Parma163672328-515
16Como163671828-1015
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1650112139-1815
18CagliariCagliari163581526-1114
19Monza161781421-710
20VeneziaVenezia1624101529-1410
> Serie A Full Table


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