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AFC Wimbledon
EFL Trophy | Third Round
Jan 9, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Kingsmeadow
Oxford United

AFC Wimbledon
2 - 0
Oxford Utd

Tilley (21', 50')
Johnson (67'), Kalambayi (74')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Eastwood (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Trophy clash between AFC Wimbledon and Oxford United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Oxford United

Oxford may have won just one of their last five away games, but they have managed to beat Northampton Town and Forest Green on their travels in the EFL Trophy this season. With that in mind, we think that the U's will continue their away-day success in the competition by claiming a narrow win in Tuesday's contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 44.71%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 31.9% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.41%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-2 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
AFC WimbledonDrawOxford United
44.71%23.38%31.9%
Both teams to score 62.34%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.86%39.14%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.53%61.47%
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.12%17.87%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.35%48.64%
Oxford United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.91%24.09%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.62%58.37%
Score Analysis
    AFC Wimbledon 44.71%
    Oxford United 31.9%
    Draw 23.38%
AFC WimbledonDrawOxford United
2-1 @ 9.09%
1-0 @ 7.41%
2-0 @ 6.38%
3-1 @ 5.22%
3-2 @ 3.71%
3-0 @ 3.66%
4-1 @ 2.25%
4-2 @ 1.6%
4-0 @ 1.58%
Other @ 3.82%
Total : 44.71%
1-1 @ 10.55%
2-2 @ 6.47%
0-0 @ 4.3%
3-3 @ 1.76%
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 23.38%
1-2 @ 7.51%
0-1 @ 6.13%
0-2 @ 4.36%
1-3 @ 3.56%
2-3 @ 3.07%
0-3 @ 2.07%
1-4 @ 1.27%
2-4 @ 1.09%
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 31.9%

How you voted: AFC Wimbledon vs Oxford Utd

AFC Wimbledon
57.1%
Draw
0.0%
Oxford United
42.9%
7
Head to Head
Dec 29, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 25
Oxford Utd
3-0
AFC Wimbledon
Sykes (27'), Taylor (38'), Long (60')
Kane (43'), Moore (76')

Csoka (62'), Woodyard (72'), Marsh (75')
Sep 4, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 6
AFC Wimbledon
3-1
Oxford Utd
Rudoni (55', 81'), Nightingale (78')
Guinness-Walker (37'), Heneghan (54'), Chislett (79')
Sykes (45+1')
Seddon (13')
Apr 20, 2021 7pm
Gameweek 43
AFC Wimbledon
2-1
Oxford Utd
Pigott (62' pen.), Woodyard (64')
Pigott (58'), Guinness-Walker (81')
Ruffels (52')
Henry (62')
Feb 2, 2021 7pm
Quarter-Finals
Oxford Utd
3-1
AFC Wimbledon
Winnall (13', 29'), Shodipo (52')
Chislett (78')
Longman (82')
Dec 26, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 20
Oxford Utd
2-0
AFC Wimbledon
Obita (13'), Taylor (22')
Rodriguez (50'), Agyei (83')

Thomas (21'), Csoka (45+3')
rhs 2.0
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