Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belper Town win with a probability of 55.21%. A win for Lutterworth Town had a probability of 24.53% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belper Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.75%) and 2-0 (6.36%). The likeliest Lutterworth Town win was 1-2 (5.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belper Town would win this match.