Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 46.11%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 27.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Portimonense | Draw | Arouca |
27.96% ( 0.87) | 25.93% ( 0.4) | 46.11% ( -1.28) |
Both teams to score 51.43% ( -0.61) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.58% ( -1.1) | 52.41% ( 1.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.91% ( -0.95) | 74.09% ( 0.95) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.52% ( 0.11) | 33.47% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.89% ( 0.11) | 70.11% ( -0.12) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.3% ( -1.04) | 22.7% ( 1.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.64% ( -1.56) | 56.35% ( 1.56) |
Score Analysis |
Portimonense | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 8.32% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.66% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.4% Total : 27.96% | 1-1 @ 12.33% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 5% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.93% | 0-1 @ 11.26% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 9.14% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 8.35% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.22) 0-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.21) 2-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.14) 0-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.13) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.1% Total : 46.1% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 14 | 34 | 41 |
2 | Benfica | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 40 |
4 | Braga | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 31 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 17 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 31 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 25 |
7 | Casa Pia | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 24 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 22 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 20 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 19 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 18 |
13 | Nacional | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 16 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 16 |
15 | AVS | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 15 |
16 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 15 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 14 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 12 |
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