San Jose Earthquakes travel to the Q2 Stadium on Sunday for their meeting with Austin FC in a battle at the bottom of the MLS Western Conference.
The hosts currently prop up the table after a poor recent run of form, whilst the Earthquakes sit two places above them in 11th spot.
Match preview
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Things do not seem to be getting any better if you are an Austin fan.
Josh Wolff's side came into their game against Los Angeles FC on Wednesday evening in desperate need of points after three consecutive defeats, including a 3-0 loss to Houston Dynamo in which they conceded within 60 seconds.
Austin held out until Diego Fagundez handled in his own area on the hour mark, with Cristian Arango converting the penalty. Fagundez made up for his mistake by equalising in the 67th minute, but LAFC condemned the home side to a fourth consecutive defeat with a winner in the final 10 minutes.
The Q2 Stadium has not exactly provided a significant home-field advantage for the latest expansion side, who have only won three of their 12 regular-season games played there so far.
Wolff will have to hope that his team can turn that statistic around this weekend, against one of the few sides that may still be within touching distance.
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The bad news for the home side is that San Jose are actually better on their travels than at home.
They are undefeated in their last seven away games, dating back to June, and have even beaten two of the conference's top sides - Seattle Sounders and Los Angeles Galaxy - during that run.
The Quakes' most recent game was at home, though, against Real Salt Lake on Wednesday evening and saw them on the wrong end of a seven-goal thriller.
Javier Lopez gave San Jose the lead, and even completed a stunning hat-trick in the second half, but saw his side concede four times as they threw away the lead twice and Rubio Rubin secured all three points for the Claret and Cobalt in the 81st minute.
The night might have finished differently had Damir Kreilach's red card been upheld, but Matias Almeyda and his men must not rely on the opposition being reduced to 10 men in order to see out games.
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Team News
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Austin have the bulk of the two sides' injury issues.
Matt Besler's concussion will see him out until the end of the month, as will knee injuries for Ulises Segura and Aaron Schoenfeld, whilst there are also long-term absences for Danny Hoesen (hip) and Ben Sweat (ACL).
That has left manager Wolff a little light at the back but his defensive four of Zan Kolmanic, Jhohan Romana, Julio Cascante and Nick Lima against Los Angeles produced far from the season's worst performance.
Earthquakes goalkeeper Matt Bersano is closing in on a return to full fitness, but looks set to be absent from the matchday squad this weekend, so James Marcinkowski will remain between the sticks for the away side.
That is the only injury worry for Almeyda, though, who can pick any of his outfield players to fill what will likely be a 4-2-3-1 formation once again.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Lima, Romana, Cascante, Kolmanic; Ring, Fagundez; Gallagher, Driussi, Pochettino; Dominguez
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Beason, Alanis, Lopez, Abecasis; Yueill, Judson; Espinoza, Lopez, Fierro; Wondolowski
We say: Austin FC 1-2 San Jose Earthquakes
The two sides played out a 0-0 draw in their only previous meeting, back in June, but we fancy there to be a few more goals this time, with San Jose coming out on top.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 38.87%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 38.17% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.05%) and 0-2 (5.04%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 2-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that San Jose Earthquakes would win this match.
