With the second leg of this contest scheduled for next week, both sides look set to approach the first leg with caution, meaning that Atletico Nacional and Racing Club will likely play out a tense and cagey draw on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Nacional win with a probability of 40.94%. A win for Racing Club had a probability of 32.33% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Racing Club win was 0-1 (9.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Nacional would win this match.

Result
Atletico Nacional	Draw	Racing Club
40.94% ( 1.1)	26.73% ( -0.02)	32.33% ( -1.06)

Both teams to score 51.13% (

-0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.19% (

-0.13)

53.81% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.72% (

-0.11)

75.28% (

0.12)

Atletico Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.13% (

0.53)

25.88% (

-0.52)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.15% (

0.71)

60.86% (

-0.7)

Racing Club Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.98% (

-0.77)

31.02% (

0.78)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.67% (

-0.91)

67.33% (

0.92)

Score Analysis

Atletico Nacional 40.94%

Racing Club 32.33%

Draw 26.73%

Atletico Nacional	Draw	Racing Club
1-0 @ 10.85% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 8.59% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 3.87% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 3.31% ( 0.16) 3-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.3% Total : 40.94%	1-1 @ 12.7% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.03% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.73%	0-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 7.43% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.21) 1-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.06) Other @ 3% Total : 32.33%