Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 49.85%. A win for Lincoln City had a probability of 25.16% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.96%). The likeliest Lincoln City win was 0-1 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.