Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 42.13%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 30.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (7.96%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 1-0 (9.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.