Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 20

Mar 10, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Elland Road

Leeds
0 - 3
Aston Villa

Koch (45+1'), Gelhardt (67'), Firpo (81'), James (86'), Raphinha (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Coutinho (22'), Cash (65'), Chambers (73')
Watkins (17'), Mings (47'), Luiz (62')

Leeds United boss Jesse Marsch: 'I am not afraid of the task in hand'

Leeds United boss Jesse Marsch claims he is not afraid of the relegation fight and urges his players and the fans to stay calm after their 3-0 loss against Aston Villa on Thursday.

Mar 10, 23:15

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Premier League clash between Leeds United and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Leeds United

Last Six:

Last Game: Brentford 1-2 Leeds
Sunday, May 22 at 4pm in Premier League

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
16	Everton	38	-23	39
17	Leeds United	38	-37	38
18	Burnley	38	-19	35

Aston Villa

Last Six:

Last Game: Man City 3-2 Aston Villa
Sunday, May 22 at 4pm in Premier League

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
13	Brentford	38	-8	46
14	Aston Villa	38	-2	45
15	Southampton	38	-24	40

We said: Leeds United 1-2 Aston Villa

Leeds already look more assured defensively under Marsch and will possess a greater goal threat with Bamford back and raring to go, which spells optimism for the American coach ahead of his first home game. However, Villa produced a near-perfect performance against a previously in-form Southampton side and will be in no mood to halt their hot streak, so we still expect Gerrard's men to get over the line. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 40.22%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 33.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 1-0 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Leeds United	Draw	Aston Villa
33.65%	26.14%	40.22%

Both teams to score 53.39%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.92%

51.08%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.06%

72.93%

Leeds United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.2%

28.8%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.35%

64.65%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.99%

25.01%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.33%

59.68%

Score Analysis

Leeds United 33.65%

Aston Villa 40.22%

Draw 26.13%

Leeds United	Draw	Aston Villa
1-0 @ 8.97% 2-1 @ 7.73% 2-0 @ 5.58% 3-1 @ 3.21% 3-0 @ 2.32% 3-2 @ 2.22% 4-1 @ 1% Other @ 2.62% Total : 33.65%	1-1 @ 12.42% 0-0 @ 7.2% 2-2 @ 5.36% 3-3 @ 1.03% Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.13%	0-1 @ 9.98% 1-2 @ 8.61% 0-2 @ 6.92% 1-3 @ 3.98% 0-3 @ 3.2% 2-3 @ 2.48% 1-4 @ 1.38% 0-4 @ 1.11% Other @ 2.57% Total : 40.22%