In their final regular-season fixture of the 2024 Major League Soccer (MLS) campaign, Toronto host Inter Miami on Saturday at BMO Field.
A 4-1 defeat versus the New York Red Bulls in midweek has the Reds clinging to that final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference in ninth, while the Herons officially clinched the Supporters' Shield crown thanks to a 3-2 triumph over the Columbus Crew.
Match preview
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Decision day for Toronto takes place on Saturday, and they are above the playoff line on account of having more victories (11) than the Philadelphia Union (nine) and DC United (nine).
Their defeat on Wednesday, though, means their playoff destiny is no longer in their hands heading into this upcoming contest.
A win against Miami would force DC and the Union to claim four points from their final two league games, though John Herdman's side can still make the post-season if they lose, but only if those two teams behind them lose their last two encounters as well.
The Reds have lost two consecutive league fixtures at BMO Field and have suffered nine defeats at home in the competition this year.
Six times in the regular season, Toronto FC have conceded three goals in a 90-minute span at BMO Field, while they have netted one or fewer in three of their last four MLS home games.
TFC won the last home game against the Herons a season ago, claiming a 2-0 triumph in March 2023, their first of only four victories in the competition last year.
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It was only a matter of time before it happened, and on Wednesday it was made official, Miami will finish the 2024 regular season with the best record in Major League Soccer.
With two victories in their final two games before the playoff, the Herons would set a new league record for points in a single campaign, exceeding the current mark of 73 held by the 2021 New England Revolution.
Inter Miami have suffered just four defeats in 32 domestic affairs this year, the fewest in MLS, while it will be the fewest for them in a single season regardless of how their final two games end.
So far this year, the Herons have scored 72 goals in MLS, the most of any side in this competition since the Philadelphia Union in 2022 (72), and another one this weekend would give them more than any side has had in the regular season since Los Angeles FC (85) in 2019.
Tata Martino's men have points in four straight league games outside Fort Lauderdale but have dropped points in two of their previous three away fixtures.
They have won eight of the last nine meetings against Toronto, with their previous victory at BMO Field taking place in 2022 (1-0).
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Team News
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Against the Red Bulls, Toronto were missing Charlie Sharp, who has a lower leg issue, Lorenzo Insigne sat out with a calf strain and Henry Wingo was sidelined because of a sore hamstring.
Nicksoen Gomis did not feature due to a hamstring injury, while Federico Bernardeschi is out after receiving two yellow cards on Wednesday.
A second-half penalty converted by Prince Owusu gave the Reds some hope, with the German striker netting his eighth of the season.
On the Miami side, David Martinez sat out of their previous encounter with a right adductor strain, CJ dos Santos is still dealing with a hand issue and Lawson Sunderland has a hamstring problem.
Leo Afonso is out for the season because of a sore groin, while Nicolas Freire and Facundo Farias are still recovering from ACL injuries.
A goal three minutes into the second half by Luis Suarez proved to be the winner, with Lionel Messi netting a brace, though with the Supporters' Shield already assured, we believe the Argentine will be rested for this game.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Rosted, Long, Petretta; Laryea, Coello, Flores, Spicer; Kerr, Etienne; Owusu
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Callender; Weigandt, Fray, Allen, Alba; Bright, Busquets, Ruiz; Gressel, Campana, Gomez
We say: Toronto 0-3 Inter Miami
Miami have shown they are perhaps the deepest team in the league regarding attacking quality and creativity, and we believe that will continue against a defensive unit in Toronto that still have issues to sort out.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
