Two sides separated by only one point in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A standings will look to extend their impressive unbeaten runs in league play on Monday as Cuiaba play host to Fluminense at Arena Pantanal.
The team from Mato Grosso have moved up to eighth in the table, unbeaten in their previous four games, while Flu have not lost in five successive Serie A fixtures as they currently sit in seventh.
Match preview
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Founded less than 20 years, Cuiaba have risen quickly up the ranks of Brazilian football and are learning what it takes to compete in the top flight.
Jorginho, who won a lot of silverware for both club and country during his playing days, has moulded this team into a well-rounded side as a manager, and they picked up two clean sheets at the end of last month, while suffering only one defeat in their previous seven league games.
They are one of the most improved sides in the Brazilian top flight at the moment, who were in danger of being relegated early on, going winless in their opening nine Serie A matches in what is their first appearance at this level.
This is a team with a lot of patience, who have done a great job of staying disciplined while waiting for the right opportunity to counter as they have not had more than 37% possession in each of their last four matches but have still been able to earn three wins and a draw.
The last time they faced Tricolor in early June, they saw a lot more of the ball than usual with 56% possession and four shots on target but were unable to find a way through as they lost 1-0.
Since that defeat, however we have seen a very different side, who have earned points in all but four of their 18 games played following that loss, with a place in the Copa Libertadores qualifiers for next year now very much a possibility.
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After being on the wrong side of their share of tight games, Fluminense are starting to get some of the breaks, winning their last two matches by a single goal, including a resilient performance last week to beat Sao Paulo 2-1.
Since Marcao took over as manager from Roger Machado, they have earned 11 out of a possible 15 points in the Brasileiro Serie A and are only a point behind Corinthians for sixth, which would put them in a qualifying position for the Copa Libertadores next season.
After being eliminated in their Copa do Brasil quarter-final tie with Atletico Mineiro, their sole focus will be on climbing up the league standings, and they have an excellent opportunity to do that in their final two games of September.
Following this game, they will battle Bragantino, who are only four points above them at the moment, so a couple more wins could potentially move them into a top-four position in the table.
In their last five league fixtures, they have done a better job of starting on the right foot, scoring the opening goal in every one of those matches.
They will be relieved to have earned a win away from home recently, beating Chapecoense 2-1 back on September 7, their only victory in their last seven road matches in all competitions.
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Team News
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Cuiaba will be without Clayson for this game, as their leader in assists this season was red-carded deep into injury time last weekend versus Juventude.
Jenison scored the winner in that match, his fourth of the campaign, putting him just two behind Elton for the team lead, while Rafael Gava collected his third assist on that goal, moving him ahead of teammate Joao Lucas in that department and drawing even with Clayson in first.
Last Saturday, Rafael Gava replaced Yesus Cabrera in the starting 11, with the only other change being Elton starting instead of Jenison.
Since the end of August, Fluminense keeper Marcos Felipe has not earned a clean sheet, conceding in each of his last four games in all competitions.
Martinelli is out with a bruised hip, while Kayky will be ineligible to play in this one, and he will join reigning Premier League champions Manchester City in the new year.
There were two changes made from the team who began their last league match against Sao Paulo to the team in the starting 11 versus Atletico Mineiro in the Copa do Brasil, as Samuel Xavier replaced Lucas Calegari at fullback and Wellington took the place of Andre in the midfield.
Cuiaba possible starting lineup:
Walter; Uendel, Paulao, Marllon, Ramon; Yuri, Camilo; Danilo, Gava, Cafu; Elton
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Felipe; Calegari, Claro, Nino, Samuel Xavier; Yago Felipe, Nascimento, Nonato; Arias, Fred, Henrique
We say: Cuiaba 1-1 Fluminense
Both teams have done a great job of turning their domestic campaigns around, and with two teams so close not only in the table but with virtually identical goals for and goals against numbers, expect to see a tight defensive game with two evenly matched sides.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 39%. A win for Cuiaba had a probability of 33.16% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.14%) and 0-2 (7.25%). The likeliest Cuiaba win was 1-0 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
