Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 60.78%. A win for St Louis City had a probability of 19.91% and a draw had a probability of 19.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.47%) and 3-1 (7.28%). The likeliest St Louis City win was 1-2 (5.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.18%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.