Round two of the Canadian Classique will be one of the storylines to follow on Friday when CF Montreal host Toronto at Saputo Stadium in La Belle Province.
In their last three fixtures, Montreal are unbeaten, drawing the Philadelphia Union last weekend 1-1, while TFC dropped their third straight contest on Saturday, 3-1 to Inter Miami.
Match preview
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After 21 games, Montreal have definitely made significant improvements from a season ago, currently sitting in sixth place in the Eastern Conference as they are in line for their highest finish to a regular season since coming in fifth in the East in their 2015 campaign.
Wilfried Nancy has instilled a genuine belief in this team that they can beat any side out there, although they still lack that killer instinct to finish off a team that are down.
Last week, that instinct eluded them again as they allowed an 87th minute equaliser against Philly, the second time this month that Montreal had allowed a late goal and let three points turn into one.
That seems to be the big thing that is separating them from a team fighting to remain in a playoff position to a side that could be in the top echelon of the Eastern Conference.
Since returning to Saputo Stadium in mid-July, this team have fed off of their home crowd, going unbeaten in three consecutive fixtures and scoring nine goals over that stretch.
Montreal have been able to navigate effectively through this season by showing a lot of patience to keep their matches close early on while avoiding lengthy losing runs, which was an area they had trouble with last year under Thierry Henry, losing consecutive fixtures on four separate occasions.
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The Reds are trying to find their way out of another problematic spell, currently winless in their last six MLS games, coming away without a point in their previous three.
Toronto were poor from the opening whistle against the Herons last Saturday, falling behind 3-0 in the early stages of the second half and only getting on the board due to an own goal by Kieran Gibbs just past the hour mark.
Since having the interim tag removed, manager Javier Perez has yet to earn a point as his team continue to have costly defensive breakdowns, preventing them from moving up the table.
At the moment, the Reds are far too cute in their end, playing too many passes rather than clearing it out when they have an opportunity, which has been an issue all season long for a side who have conceded the most goals in MLS this year (44).
It is extremely difficult to keep your composure and play your game when you concede as many early goals as TFC have lately, allowing 10 in the first-half on their current six-game slide, five of which were scored in the opening 20 minutes of a match.
Toronto just completed a tough stretch of three matches in a week last Saturday, and the schedule will be equally demanding for the rest of the summer with only six days to rest in between their defeat to Miami and their match with Montreal.
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Team News
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Montreal will not have their leading goalscorer Mason Toye available for this weekend because of a shoulder injury, Romell Quioto has a hamstring issue, Ahmed Hamdi is suffering from a quadricep problem, while Ballou Tabla and Lassi Lappalainen are both suffering from groin injuries.
Centre-back Robert Thorkelsson underwent successful surgery for a sports hernia to his left adductor on Tuesday but will be out for the next eight to 12 weeks, while Jonathan Sirois is back from his loan spell with Valour FC in the Canadian Premier League.
Goalkeeper Sebastian Breza made his fourth successive start in goal for Montreal last weekend, while Rudy Camacho missed that match due to a red card suspension and the club signed 20-year-old Matko Miljevic to a three-and-a-half year contract last Friday from Argentinos Juniors, with an option to stay in 2025.
Quentin Westberg has started in goal for Toronto over their past two fixtures, in place of Alex Bono, conceding three of the six shots that he faced versus Miami.
Jozy Altidore will be out for at least six weeks after undergoing foot surgery, Ralph Priso is gone for the remainder of the year with an ankle injury, Ayo Akinola has a torn ACL, while Tsubasa Endoh and Dom Dwyer are out with lower-body injuries.
Perez made a lot of changes to the starting 11 last weekend to the team that started in their defeat to Atlanta United as Kemar Lawrence, Luke Singh and Richie Laryea all started at the back, while Marco Delgado replaced Michael Bradley in midfield, with Yeferson Soteldo, Alejandro Pozuelo and Ifunanyachi Achara playing in more attacking roles.
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Miller, Waterman, Brault-Guillard; Maciel, Choiniere, Piette, Mihailovic; Torres, Johnsen, Ibrahim
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Bono; Lawrence, Zavaleta, Gonzalez, Morrow; Bradley, Delgado; DeLeon, Pozuelo, Osorio; Mullins
We say: CF Montreal 2-1 Toronto
Montreal have done enough to get by this season, and they should not have any issues maintaining a high intensity through 90 minutes against their biggest rivals who are struggling to score.
Toronto keep digging themselves a deeper hole week after week, and it seems like this group of veterans are running out of solutions to turn their season around.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 56.83%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 20.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.82%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (5.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
