Sporting Kansas City travel to Providence Park for a showdown with the Portland Timbers on Saturday night.
The Timbers fell 3-0 to the Philadelphia Union in their last match before the international break, while KC extended their unbeaten run to four games with a 1-1 draw versus Austin FC.
Match preview
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It seemed like the Portland Timbers were turning the corner last month, shutting out two offensively talented squads in the San Jose Earthquakes (2-0) and the LA Galaxy (3-0) before they hit a wall in their last match, losing 3-0 to the Union.
The recipe for success for Giovanni Savarese and his team in the early stages of 2021 has been to score first, going 3-0 when they do, but going 0-4 when they concede first.
More often than not, however, they have found themselves chasing a match and trailing heading into the second half, as they have been outscored 6-2 in the first half of matches this season.
They may not have a winning record after seven games (three wins and four losses), but they are still a dangerous and well-balanced team with their nine goals coming courtesy of eight different players, which is tied for the most in MLS.
Portland are fifth in the league in terms of chances created with an average of 11.3 per game, while they are also fifth when it comes to big chances created, averaging 2.6 per game.
In their last four MLS encounters, Peter Vermes will have very little to complain about as his Sporting KC side have looked fantastic, winning three games, drawing one and scoring 10 goals in that span.
Last week, they looked solid despite the time off, but perhaps they were still a little rusty in front of goal, as they fired 32 shots but could only muster one goal in a draw against Austin.
While the Timbers struggle when they fall behind, the Wizards seem to thrive when trailing, winning four games this season from a losing position, the most among MLS clubs.
The KC style of play is built to score, so it should come as no surprise to see them leading the league in both goals (16) and big chances (27).
A victory this weekend would move them into a tie with Dallas and the New York Red Bulls for the second-most regular-season wins in MLS history, with the Wizards currently sitting at 327 all time.
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Team News
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Portland are unlikely to have Andy Polo back anytime soon as he still has a torn muscle, while Diego Chara and Larrys Mabiala have hamstring injuries.
Goalkeeper Steve Clark and midfielder Cristhian Paredes could still be a couple of weeks away with thigh muscle strains.
Their top goalscorer Felipe Mora is representing Chile at the Copa America, while his teammate Yimmi Chara, the brother of Diego, is with the Colombian national team for that same competition.
Sporting KC are the only team in MLS with three players who have scored least three goals this season, as Alan Pulido leads the way with five, Daniel Salloi has four and Gadi Kinda is on the board with three.
Striker Khiry Shelton will hope to see the field this weekend, as he needs just one more appearance to reach 50 all-time in the regular season for the Wizards.
Johnny Russell has shown his versatility throughout his career at Sporting KC, becoming the eighth player in club history to record 25 goals and 25 assists in the regular season in his career, and he currently ranks second in this MLS campaign for big chances with six.
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Sulte; Bravo, Zuparic, Tuiloma, Van Rankin; Williamson, Zambrano; Loria, Valeri, Ebobisse; Asprilla
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Zusi, llie, Fontas, Martins; Espinoza, Busio, Walter; Russell, Pulido, Salloi
We say: Portland Timbers 1-2 Sporting Kansas City
Kansas City are starting to gel as a unit, creating plenty of scoring opportunities, plus they have the players who can finish off those chances, including Daniel Salloi, who has three goals and two assists in seven regular-season games against the Timbers (including the playoffs).
Goalkeeper Tim Melia enjoys playing at Providence Park, keeping four clean sheets in five appearances there.
Combine that with the fact that the Timbers are missing their top goalscorer in Felipe Mora, and it could a tough evening for Portland in attack.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 43.13%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 32.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.15%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Portland Timbers in this match.
