Uruguay and Peru will lock horns in their penultimate CONMEBOL World Cup qualifier at the Centenario on Thursday.
Both nations are battling to book their place at this year's tournament in Qatar, with the hosts currently sitting fourth in the standings, one place and one point above the visitors in fifth.
Match preview
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After suffering four straight defeats in CONMEBOL Qualifying between October and November last year, which brought an end to Oscar Tabarez's 15-year reign as manager, Uruguay have since bounced back with successive victories under the tutelage of Diego Alonso.
La Celeste followed up a slender 1-0 win away in Paraguay with a comfortable 4-1 victory at home against Venezuela last month, with Luis Suarez, Edinson Cavani, Rodrigo Bentancur and Giorgian de Arrascaeta all on the scoresheet.
Six wins, four draws and six defeats sees Uruguay with 22 points from their 16 matches and they are clinging on to the fourth and final automatic qualification spot.
However, victory for the two-time World Cup winners against Peru on Thursday would all but secure their place at this year's tournament in Qatar, before facing Chile in their final qualification fixture on March 30.
La Celeste have won five of their last 11 encounters against Peru in all competitions and are currently unbeaten in each of their last four against them, including three draws.
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Following a poor start to their qualification campaign – winning only three of their opening 12 games, including four defeats and a draw in their opening five – Peru have since turned their fortunes around and are in contention for a top-four place.
La Blanquirroja won three successive games against Bolivia, Venezuela and Colombia before drawing 1-1 against Ecuador in their most recent qualifier last month. A 69th-minute strike from DC United midfielder Edison Flores cancelled out a second-minute opener from Ecuador's Michael Estrada to rescue a point in Lima.
That result has seen them slip down to fifth place into the inter-confederation playoff position, but they are only one point behind Thursday's opponents Uruguay and have a favourable final fixture against already-eliminated Paraguay next week.
Peru have not beaten Uruguay since March 2017 when they won 2-1 on home soil, but success in Montevideo would provide a huge boost in their quest to qualify for back-to-back World Cup tournaments for the first time since 1982.
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Team News
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Uruguay will be able to welcome back midfielder Lucas Torreira, who missed their last match due to COVID-19; however, Matias Vecino is sidelined with the virus.
Torreira is set to start alongside Bentancur in the middle of the pitch, while Manchester United's Facundo Pellistri, who was handed his first two senior caps last month, could be handed another start on the right side of midfield.
Fernando Muslera missed last month's qualifiers due to injury, but the experienced goalkeeper is set to replace Sergio Rochet between the sticks, while Barcelona centre-back Ronald Araujo may continue at right-back ahead of Martin Caceres, joining Diego Godin, Jose Gimenez and Mathias Olivera in the back four.
Veteran strikers Suarez and Cavani are the two most likely candidates to start up front, but Darwin Nunez and Maxi Gomez will both be hoping to force their way into the first XI.
As for Peru, Aldo Corzo and Christian Cueva both served one-match suspensions last time out and are available to return to the starting lineup on Thursday.
Corzo could replace 104-cap Luis Advincula at right-back, while Cueva will be competing with Raziel Garcia for a place on the left flank.
Midfielder Renato Tapia, who scored in the 1-1 draw against Uruguay last year, could retain his place in centre-midfield alongside Sergio Pena and Yoshimar Yotun, while either Santiago Ormeno or Gianluca Lapadula is set to lead the line in attack.
Uruguay possible starting lineup:
Muslera; Araujo, Godin, Gimenez, Olivera; Pellistri, Bentancur, Torreira, Valverde; Cavani, Suarez
Peru possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Corzo, Ramos, Callens, Trauco; Tapia; Carrillo, Pena, Yotun, Cueva; Lapadula
We say: Uruguay 2-1 Peru
A closely-fought contest is set to take place in Montevideo, though Uruguay will head into this fixture as favourites given their star names such as Suarez and Cavani can be called upon.
Peru will likely cause problems in the final third, but we believe the hosts possess greater firepower in attack which should see them outscore their opponents.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 55.5%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Peru had a probability of 19.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.37%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (7.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Uruguay in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Uruguay.
Argentina
Uruguay
Ecuador
Colombia
Brazil
Paraguay
Bolivia
Venezuela
Chile
Peru
