A spot in the last 16 of the Europa League will be on the line Thursday when Monaco host Bayer Leverkusen at Stade Louis II.
In the opening leg last Thursday, Les Monegasques stormed back with two goals in the final 16 minutes plus stoppage time to win 3-2, so a victory or draw in this match will be enough to put them through to the next stage of this competition.
Match preview
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It rarely looks comfortable, but Monaco have shown plenty of character throughout 2023, and that propelled them to a massive triumph in Germany last week.
As a result, Philippe Clement's men have the upper hand heading to the Principality, and they will fancy their chances of advancing, seeing as Monaco are unbeaten in their last 13 UEFA Cup/Europa League fixtures played on home soil.
While many of their matches domestically and in Europe this season have been unpredictable, it is a pretty safe bet that this group will find the back of the net, having done so in 33 consecutive Ligue 1 affairs, though they failed to score twice in the group stage of this competition.
Since dropping a 1-0 decision to Ferencvaros on matchday two, they have looked unstoppable at home in the attacking third, outscoring their last two Europa League opponents at Stade Louis II by a margin of 7-2, while netting a combined 13 times in their previous three domestic affairs in the Principality.
Their last defeat at home in the knockout stage of this competition came against a German opponent when they lost 1-0 to Borussia Monchengladbach during the 1996-97 UEFA Cup, though they still advanced from that tie, 4-3 on aggregate.
Monaco have never been eliminated from a two-legged knockout tie in a major European competition (excluding qualifiers) after winning the opening match away from home, advancing in each of their previous 10 attempts.
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Leverkusen missed a golden opportunity to take the opening leg of this tie, reacting well in the second half with two goals in the opening 15 minutes, but they ultimately left too many gaps at the back through the latter stages.
Throughout the 2022-23 campaign, we have seen them suffer some disastrous mishaps which have come back to bite them, and the complacency of Die Werkself last Thursday proved costly.
History suggests that their odds of reversing this one-goal deficit are long, as Leverkusen have been eliminated from all 11 two-legged knockout ties (excluding qualifiers) when losing the opening fixture at home.
Even though a one-goal victory would keep them alive in this tie, Xabi Alonso might not feel good about his side's chances in a shootout, with Leverkusen missing six of their last eight penalties in the Bundesliga, including this past weekend when they were beaten 3-2 by Mainz.
Given how poor they have been at home lately, losing their last three matches in all competitions, going on the road might not be so bad, as Bayer have won two of their previous three domestic encounters as the visitors.
Their track record away from home versus Ligue 1 opponents in this competition is not great, winning only once, though that lone victory occurred in the recent past, defeating Nice 3-2 in the 2020-21 group stage at Allianz Riviera.
Team News
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Vanderson and Guillermo Maripan are questionable for Monaco with knee issues, Gelson Martins and Ruben Aguilar have sore thighs, while Kevin Volland is out with an ankle injury.
Krepin Diatta fired home his first of the competition last Thursday, with Axel Disasi notching the winner in injury time, while it was Aleksandr Golovin and Myron Boadu who found the mark when they defeated Brest 2-1 this past weekend in Ligue 1.
Their leading goalscorer domestically, Wissam Ben Yedder, has seven goals in his last four home games in all competitions, notching a brace in a 3-1 win over Paris Saint-Germain.
Charles Aranguiz might not be available for Die Schwarzroten because of a calf strain, Andrey Lunyov is dealing with a sore back, while their leading goalscorer domestically, Moussa Diaby, has a groin injury.
Since the beginning of the 2020-21 campaign, Florian Wirtz has been directly involved in 12 Europa League goals, scoring 11 minutes after Diaby had levelled the match with Monaco last Thursday following goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky's own goal, which put them behind after nine minutes.
Nadiem Amiri and Patrik Schick each found the mark for Leverkusen domestically this past weekend, but it was a penalty miss from Edmond Tapsoba which wound up being their downfall.
Monaco possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Matsima, Disasi, Sarr, Henrique; Diatta, Fofana, Camara, Golovin; Ben Seghir, Ben Yedder
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Frimpong, Tapsoda, Tah, Bakker; Andrich, Palacios; Adli, Wirtz, Amiri; Schick
We say: Monaco 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen
Monaco could be exposed out wide with their top two right-backs, Vanderson and Aguilar, injured, but they can make up for their defensive frailties with plenty of quality in the attacking third.
Losing Diaby is a massive blow for Alonso ahead of this match as his side rely heavily on the Frenchman for goals, while defensively this group have been exposed often, conceding six times in their last two games in all competitions.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
