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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 50.29%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
Result | ||
Union Berlin | Draw | Mainz 05 |
50.29% ( 1.17) | 24.89% ( 0.06) | 24.82% ( -1.23) |
Both teams to score 52% ( -1.35) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.6% ( -1.23) | 50.39% ( 1.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.67% ( -1.1) | 72.33% ( 1.1) |
Union Berlin Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.95% | 20.05% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.73% ( -0) | 52.26% ( 0) |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.04% ( -1.69) | 34.96% ( 1.7) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.3% ( -1.82) | 71.7% ( 1.82) |
Score Analysis |
Union Berlin | Draw | Mainz 05 |
1-0 @ 11.26% ( 0.55) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.44) 3-1 @ 5.1% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.85% ( 0.23) 3-2 @ 2.68% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 2.05% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.95% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.77% Total : 50.29% | 1-1 @ 11.83% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.01% ( 0.34) 2-2 @ 5% ( -0.22) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.88% | 0-1 @ 7.37% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.22% ( -0.27) 0-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.2) 2-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.16) 0-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.08% Total : 24.82% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 7 | 25 | 23 |
2 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 20 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
4 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 16 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 16 |
6 | Freiburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 16 |
7 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 15 |
8 | Stuttgart | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
10 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
11 | Augsburg | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 |
12 | Heidenheim | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
13 | Mainz 05Mainz | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 |
14 | Wolfsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
15 | St Pauli | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
16 | Hoffenheim | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 8 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 29 | -20 | 1 |
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