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Bundesliga | Gameweek 1
Aug 20, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Forsterei
Mainz logo

Union Berlin
4 - 1
Mainz

Behrens (1', 9', 70'), Pantovic (90+6')
Behrens (10')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Caci (64')
Jae-sung (31'), Kohr (51'), da Costa (58'), Barreiro (79'), van den Berg (90+1'), Svensson (90+90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Elversberg 0-1 Mainz
Saturday, August 12 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

We said: Union Berlin 2-1 Mainz 05

Having made some impressive signings during the summer transfer window, in contrast to Mainz who may start with no debutants, Union Berlin will sense an excellent opportunity to build momentum from the outset on Sunday. Mainz have established themselves as a solid mid-table side under Svensson, but they may be lacking a little quality and belief to gain a result at a potentially rocking Stadion An der Alten Forsterei. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 50.29%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.

Result
Union BerlinDrawMainz 05
50.29% (1.172 1.17) 24.89% (0.062000000000001 0.06) 24.82% (-1.232 -1.23)
Both teams to score 52% (-1.354 -1.35)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.6% (-1.225 -1.23)50.39% (1.226 1.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.67% (-1.095 -1.1)72.33% (1.097 1.1)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.95%20.05% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.73% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)52.26% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.04% (-1.692 -1.69)34.96% (1.695 1.7)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.3% (-1.82 -1.82)71.7% (1.821 1.82)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 50.29%
    Mainz 05 24.82%
    Draw 24.88%
Union BerlinDrawMainz 05
1-0 @ 11.26% (0.55 0.55)
2-1 @ 9.51% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
2-0 @ 9.05% (0.438 0.44)
3-1 @ 5.1% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 4.85% (0.235 0.23)
3-2 @ 2.68% (-0.117 -0.12)
4-1 @ 2.05% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.95% (0.094 0.09)
4-2 @ 1.08% (-0.047 -0.05)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 50.29%
1-1 @ 11.83% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 7.01% (0.34 0.34)
2-2 @ 5% (-0.218 -0.22)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.088 -0.09)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.88%
0-1 @ 7.37% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
1-2 @ 6.22% (-0.271 -0.27)
0-2 @ 3.87% (-0.168 -0.17)
1-3 @ 2.18% (-0.202 -0.2)
2-3 @ 1.75% (-0.163 -0.16)
0-3 @ 1.36% (-0.126 -0.13)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 24.82%

How you voted: Union Berlin vs Mainz

Union Berlin
86.8%
Draw
7.9%
Mainz 05
5.3%
38
Head to Head
Feb 4, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 19
Union Berlin
2-1
Mainz
Behrens (32'), Siebatcheu (84')
Ingvartsen (79' pen.)
Aug 14, 2022 2.30pm
Feb 26, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 24
Union Berlin
3-1
Mainz
Haraguchi (8'), Becker (56'), Awoniyi (75')
Trimmel (42'), Jaeckel (67'), Baumgartl (90+2'), Khedira (90+2')
Burgzorg (90')
Svensson (12'), Hack (18'), Kohr (58'), Stoger (90+2')
Kohr (60')
Oct 3, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 7
Mainz
1-2
Union Berlin
Ingvartsen (39')
Kohr (75')
Kohr (90+2')
Awoniyi (69', 73')
Haraguchi (45+2'), Knoche (65'), Promel (79'), Kruse (82')
Feb 6, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 20
Mainz
1-0
Union Berlin
Niakhate (22' pen.)
Kohr (28'), Barreiro (40')

Schlotterbeck (21'), Teuchert (33'), Knoche (60'), Trimmel (67')
Schlotterbeck (55')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern97203272523
2RB Leipzig96211551020
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt95222314917
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen94412015516
5Borussia DortmundDortmund95131715216
6Freiburg95131311216
7Union BerlinUnion Berlin943298115
8Stuttgart93421716113
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach94141514113
10Werder Bremen93331520-512
11Augsburg93241320-711
12Heidenheim93151212010
13Mainz 05Mainz92431213-110
14Wolfsburg92341617-19
15St Pauli9225711-48
16Hoffenheim92251319-68
17Holstein Kiel91261123-125
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum9018929-201


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