Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ayr United win with a probability of 70.68%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Arbroath had a probability of 12.06%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ayr United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 1-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.08%), while for an Arbroath win it was 1-2 (3.52%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ayr United would win this match.
Result | ||
Ayr United | Draw | Arbroath |
70.68% ( -0.15) | 17.26% ( 0.03) | 12.06% ( 0.11) |
Both teams to score 52.7% ( 0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.83% ( 0.16) | 37.17% ( -0.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.63% ( 0.17) | 59.37% ( -0.17) |
Ayr United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.64% ( 0.01) | 9.36% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.46% ( 0.02) | 31.53% ( -0.02) |
Arbroath Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.14% ( 0.29) | 41.85% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.69% ( 0.25) | 78.3% ( -0.26) |
Score Analysis |
Ayr United | Draw | Arbroath |
2-0 @ 10.99% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.57% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.28% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 8.68% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 7.56% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 5.14% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 4.48% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 2.43% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 2.12% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.95% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) 5-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.31% Total : 70.68% | 1-1 @ 8.08% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 17.26% | 1-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 3.41% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.41% Total : 12.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | FalkirkFalkirk | 19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 17 | 20 | 42 |
2 | Ayr UnitedAyr | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 38 |
3 | Livingston | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 36 |
4 | Partick ThistlePartick | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 32 |
5 | Queen's ParkQueen's Park | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 28 |
6 | Raith Rovers | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 24 |
7 | Greenock MortonMorton | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 23 |
8 | Hamilton AcademicalHamilton | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 21 |
9 | Dunfermline AthleticDunfermline | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
10 | AirdrieoniansAirdrieonians | 19 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 39 | -29 | 6 |
> Scottish Championship Full Table |