Derby County and West Bromwich Albion will lock horns at Pride Park on Tuesday evening, with a spot in the third round of the EFL Cup on offer for both sides.
The Rams recorded a 2-1 win over Mansfield Town in the first round of the competition, while West Brom secured their spot in round two courtesy of a 1-0 victory over Sheffield United at The Hawthorns.
Match preview
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Now competing in the third tier of English football following their relegation from the Championship last season, Derby have made a positive start to their 2022-23 league campaign, picking up eight points from five matches, which has left them in eighth spot in the table.
The Rams started their League One season with a 1-0 success over Oxford United before losing at Charlton Athletic, but they are unbeaten in their last three, overcoming Barnsley on August 13 before drawing their last two against Shrewsbury Town and Fleetwood Town.
Derby will be expected to make a strong challenge for an immediate return to the Championship, and they are actually preparing for the first of four home games in a row in three separate competitions.
Indeed, Liam Rosenior's side will face Peterborough United and Plymouth Argyle in their next two league games at home, in addition to a fixture against Grimsby Town at Pride Park in the EFL Trophy.
Derby, as mentioned, secured their spot in the second round of this season's EFL Cup courtesy of a 2-1 win over Mansfield, with Tom Barkhuizen scoring what proved to be the winner in the 69th minute of the match.
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West Brom, meanwhile, recorded a 1-0 win over Sheffield United in the first round of this season's EFL Cup, with Karlan Grant coming off the bench to net the only goal of the match.
Steve Bruce's side drew their opening two matches of the 2022-23 Championship campaign against Middlesbrough and Watford before suffering a 2-1 loss to Blackburn Rovers on August 14.
The Baggies then played out a goalless draw with Cardiff City three days later, but they recorded their first league victory of the season on Saturday, running out 5-2 winners over Hull City.
The result moved Bruce's team onto six points in the table, which has left them down in 14th position, but they are only two points off the top six at this stage and will be expected to challenge for the playoffs this term.
Derby were unbeaten against West Brom in the Championship last season, drawing 0-0 at The Hawthorns before recording a 1-0 victory at Pride Park, while they have only lost one of their last seven matches against the Baggies in all competitions.
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Team News
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Derby boss Rosenior selected a relatively strong side in the first round of the competition against Mansfield, and there are likely to be a number of senior players involved once again in this match.
There will be alterations from the weekend, though, with Louie Sibley, Liam Thompson, Korey Smith and Jake Rooney likely to be among those given opportunities to impress.
Lewis Dobbin started as the number 10 against Fleetwood on Saturday, and he is again expected to feature in the XI here, while Craig Forsyth could continue at left-back.
West Brom will again be missing Daryl Dike due to a thigh problem, but the Baggies are otherwise in strong shape heading into the clash with their League One opponents.
Head coach Bruce will make a number of changes to the side that started against Hull in the Championship, with Matt Phillips, Callum Robinson and Taylor Gardner-Hickman among those expected to start.
Adam Reach, Reyes Cleary and Jake Livermore should also come into the starting side, while there is likely to be a spot between the sticks for Alex Palmer.
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Wildsmith; Oduroh, Stearman, Cashin, Forsyth; Smith, Rooney, Thompson; Dobbin, Knight, Sibley
West Bromwich Albion possible starting lineup:
Palmer; Gardner-Hickman, Bartley, O'Shea, Ashworth; Yokuslu, Livermore; Phillips, Robinson, Reach; Cleary
We say: Derby County 1-2 West Bromwich Albion
Both managers will make changes from their respective league matches at the weekend, but there will still be plenty of quality on display from both sides. Derby are certainly capable of matching West Brom, but we believe that the away side will just have enough to secure a narrow win on Tuesday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a West Bromwich Albion win with a probability of 41.7%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 31.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a West Bromwich Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.71%) and 0-2 (7.43%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.
