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San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer
Oct 3, 2024 at 3.30am UK
Earthquakes Stadium
FC Dallas

Earthquakes
3 - 2
Dallas

Lopez (13', 79'), Ebobisse (83')
Marie (36'), Gruezo (74')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Velasco (41'), Ibeagha (90')
Burgess (15'), Velasco (55'), Ibeagha (60'), Arriola (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Major League Soccer clash between San Jose Earthquakes and Dallas, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Montreal 3-0 Earthquakes
Sunday, September 29 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Dallas 1-3 Orlando City
Sunday, September 29 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Dallas

The onus will be on Dallas to get the job done and keep their already slim chances of making it through to the playoffs alive. We are backing the visitors to rise up to expectations by claiming all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 48.05%. A win for Dallas had a probability of 28.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Dallas win was 1-2 (6.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that San Jose Earthquakes would win this match.

Result
San Jose EarthquakesDrawDallas
48.05% (0.144 0.14) 23.57% (0.105 0.11) 28.38% (-0.244 -0.24)
Both teams to score 59.47% (-0.557 -0.56)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.01% (-0.651 -0.65)41.99% (0.65499999999999 0.65)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.61% (-0.658 -0.66)64.39% (0.662 0.66)
San Jose Earthquakes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.33% (-0.194 -0.19)17.67% (0.198 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.7% (-0.34099999999999 -0.34)48.3% (0.345 0.34)
Dallas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.24% (-0.502 -0.5)27.76% (0.505 0.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.66% (-0.649 -0.65)63.34% (0.653 0.65)
Score Analysis
    San Jose Earthquakes 48.05%
    Dallas 28.38%
    Draw 23.57%
San Jose EarthquakesDrawDallas
2-1 @ 9.44% (0.023 0.02)
1-0 @ 8.5% (0.194 0.19)
2-0 @ 7.37% (0.122 0.12)
3-1 @ 5.46% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.26% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.5% (-0.064 -0.06)
4-1 @ 2.36% (-0.025 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.85% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.52% (-0.038 -0.04)
Other @ 3.8%
Total : 48.05%
1-1 @ 10.89% (0.09 0.09)
2-2 @ 6.05% (-0.071 -0.07)
0-0 @ 4.91% (0.143 0.14)
3-3 @ 1.49% (-0.049 -0.05)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.57%
1-2 @ 6.98% (-0.037 -0.04)
0-1 @ 6.29% (0.096 0.1)
0-2 @ 4.03% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-3 @ 2.98% (-0.058 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.59% (-0.068 -0.07)
0-3 @ 1.72% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-4 @ 0.96% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 28.38%

How you voted: Earthquakes vs Dallas

San Jose Earthquakes
28.6%
Draw
0.0%
Dallas
71.4%
14
Head to Head
Feb 25, 2024 1.30am
Oct 8, 2023 1.30am
May 28, 2023 3.30am
Earthquakes
1-1
Dallas
Kikanovic (70')
Yueill (25'), Marie (49'), Gruezo (90+9'), Judson (90')
Judson (90+10')
Burgess (90+4')
Farfan (69'), Burgess (90')
Sep 18, 2022 3.30am
rhs 2.0
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