The playoff hopes for Toronto will hang in the balance on Saturday when they travel to Exploria Stadium to face Orlando City.
A defeat for them this weekend or a victory by the Columbus Crew would spell the end of the Reds' postseason aspirations, while a win or draw for the Lions would assure they remain above the Eastern Conference playoff line of Major League Soccer.
Match preview
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We saw a much stronger effort from Orlando in midweek, but their lack of quality let them down for a second successive encounter as they fell 1-0 to Atalanta United.
That was the second defeat in all competitions for Oscar Pareja and his Lions team at Exploria Stadium since late July in a venue that has seen them win seven domestic fixtures this year.
Their margin for error is much thinner, as another slip-up on Saturday could enable the sides below that playoff line to catch them.
They have conceded the opening goal in three consecutive MLS affairs, while a defeat against Toronto this weekend would tie their longest losing streak of the campaign (three games).
Orlando come into this contest unbeaten in their last five regular-season meetings versus TFC, winning their previous two matches against them at Exploria Stadium, while also claiming a 1-0 victory at BMO Field earlier in the campaign.
For this team to avoid setting a new club record for the lowest amount of goals scored in an MLS campaign, they must tally at least four more times before the regular season ends, having scored the fewest goals (36) among the 14 sides currently in a playoff position.
Dating back to 2021, Orlando City have won their last three matches against Canadian opponents, while failing to concede in each of those encounters.
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Toronto's playoff destiny is now out of their control after back-to-back defeats this month against CF Montreal (4-3) and Atlanta United (4-2).
Bob Bradley saw his players react well when going behind on a pair of occasions last Saturday, answering the first two Five Stripes tallies within five minutes, but ultimately it was their backline that could not withstand all of that pressure, as they conceded 10 efforts on target
When this team conceded a club record 66 goals in 2021, there was a belief that things could only get better for them this season.
Unfortunately for TFC, that has not been the case as they have only conceded nine goals fewer than they did a year ago.
Seeing as Toronto have allowed three or more tallies in five matches this season, it is by no means a foregone conclusion that they will avoid conceding 66 or more goals by the end of this campaign.
The Reds have points in three of their previous five road matches, though they are tied for the fewest away wins among MLS sides this season (two).
Toronto are winless in their last seven matches played against MLS clubs from Florida (Orlando City and Inter Miami), going goalless in four successive fixtures against them, while they have not beaten the Lions on the road since 2019.
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Team News
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Joao Moutinho recorded his 80th appearance and 70th start in all competitions on Wednesday, as the Orlando defender began in a back four against Atlanta alongside Rodrigo Schlegel, Antonio Carlos and Kyle Smith.
Tesho Akindele has two goals in his Lions career versus Toronto, while their leading goalscorer this year, Ercan Kara is without a tally in his last three matches in all competitions, and their leader in assists Facundo Torres had a goal involvement in three consecutive home fixtures before their defeat on Wednesday.
Pedro Gallese and Wilder Cartagena have been called up to the Peruvian national team for the upcoming international window.
Robin Jansson will be questionable for this encounter because of a right lower leg problem, while Alexandre Pato and Joey DeZart both missed their midweek fixture due to right knee injuries.
Federico Bernardeschi extended his scoring streak to four straight matches when he notched the Reds' second goal last Saturday, as he trails Jonathan Osorio and Jesus Jimenez for the team lead by just one despite playing in only 10 domestic fixtures this season.
Ayo Akinola notched his second of the campaign in their defeat last weekend, Michael Bradley is tied with Osorio for the team lead in assists (four), though he has not set up a goal in five straight matches, while Lorenzo Insigne returned to training this week after missing their previous encounter because of a personal matter.
Osorio, Deandre Kerr and Chris Mavinga all sat out of their match last weekend as they are each currently dealing with lower body injuries.
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Ruan, Carlos, Schlegel, Moutinho; Perea, Pereyra; Mulraney, Urso, Torres; Kara
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Westberg; Criscito, Henry, MacNaughton, Laryea; Kaye, Bradley, Okello; Akinola, Insigne, Bernardeschi
We say: Orlando City 2-1 Toronto
There may be more clinical finishers on the TFC side when compared to Orlando, but Toronto leave too many gaps in their third of the field and rely a little too heavily on their Italians to carry them through.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
