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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 52.95%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 24.08% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.29%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-2 (6.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
Result | ||
Wrexham | Draw | Crawley Town |
52.95% ( 1.39) | 22.98% ( -0.56) | 24.08% ( -0.83) |
Both teams to score 57.41% ( 0.96) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.13% ( 1.7) | 42.87% ( -1.7) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.73% ( 1.67) | 65.27% ( -1.67) |
Wrexham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.81% ( 1.13) | 16.19% ( -1.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.33% ( 2.01) | 45.67% ( -2.01) |
Crawley Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.5% ( 0.22) | 31.5% ( -0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.11% ( 0.26) | 67.89% ( -0.26) |
Score Analysis |
Wrexham | Draw | Crawley Town |
2-1 @ 9.77% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 9.29% ( -0.35) 2-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.93% ( 0.26) 3-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.19) 3-2 @ 3.42% ( 0.17) 4-1 @ 2.7% ( 0.21) 4-0 @ 2.34% ( 0.17) 4-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.13) 5-1 @ 0.98% ( 0.11) Other @ 3.39% Total : 52.95% | 1-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.34) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.39) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.19% Total : 22.97% | 1-2 @ 6.2% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 5.89% ( -0.42) 0-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.22) 1-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.72% Total : 24.08% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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