Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 66.5%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 15.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.01%) and 3-1 (7.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.08%), while for a Philadelphia Union win it was 1-2 (4.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.