Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 75.53%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 8.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.68%) and 3-0 (10.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.46%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.