Unbeaten in their last six outings, Heerenveen play host to AZ Alkmaar at the Abe Lenstra Stadion on Saturday in round 30 of the 2021-22 Eredivisie season.
Meanwhile, the visitors will be looking to get back to winning ways off the back of a disappointing defeat in their most recent involvement.
Match preview
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AZ failed to win away from home for the third game running following a 2-1 loss to PEC Zwolle at the Mac3Park Stadion a fortnight ago.
Pascal Jansen's men went behind to Gervane Kastaneer's 51st-minute opener before drawing level through Vangelis Pavlidis, only for Daishawn Redan to decide the game four minutes from time.
The Cheeseheads have dropped to fifth place in the league table and are now six points behind Feyenoord in the battle for an automatic Conference League playoff spot.
Next up is a clash versus an opposing outfit who have lost each of the last four editions of this fixture since they last came out on top in 2019.
Having won 10 of 14 games on their own patch this term, Saturday's hosts boast a largely impressive record and will back themselves to emerge triumphant this weekend.
Heerenveen made it three straight home victories by seeing off the threat of Groningen in a 3-1 win two Sundays ago.
Two goals from Sydney van Hooijdonk and a Sven van Beek strike secured all three points for Ole Tobiasen's men.
As a result, De Superfriezen have moved up to 11th place in the Eredivisie table and remain just two points shy of Go Ahead Eagles in the race for a top-half finish.
Saturday's visitors are yet to win on the road since the turn of the year, with their last away victory coming back in December.
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Team News
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Yusuf Barasi and Jelle Duin are AZ's only guaranteed absentees for the game, with the former battling with a leg injury.
Forward Vangelis Pavlidis has scored four goals in his last four appearances for the hosts, making him one to look out for.
Zwolle's Pawel Bochniewicz still awaits his first outing of the season as he remains sidelined through a long-term knee injury.
Joost van Aken has missed each of Heerenveen's last three games, but the 27-year-old could make his return to action in this one.
Thom Haye's involvement this weekend is currently hanging in the balance after the midfielder was subbed off with a minor injury in the dying embers last time out.
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Vindahl; Wijndal, Chatzidiakos, Beukema, Witry; Clasie, Midtsjo; Karlsson, De Wit, Sugawara; Pavlidis
Heerenveen possible starting lineup:
Mulder; Dresevic, Bakker, Van Beek; Van Ewijk, Halilovic, Zaal, Tahiri, Kaib; Sarr, Van Hooijdonk
We say: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Heerenveen
Heerenveen are the more in-form side coming into this one, but AZ boast the superior team on paper, and we fancy them to get the job done, albeit by only a narrow margin.
Top tip
Adepoju Marvellous
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 63.32%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 15.19%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.06%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.2%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
