Vitoria de Guimaraes will be looking to avoid a third Primeira Liga defeat on the spin when they square off with Benfica at the Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica on Sunday.
As Aguias, on the other hand, head into the game off the back of a thrilling Europa League draw with Ajax and will look to build on that performance and return to winning ways.
Match preview
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Benfica put in a resilient performance in the Champions League as they fought back from two goals down to salvage a 2-2 draw with Eredivisie champions Ajax in the first leg of their round-of-16 clash last Wednesday.
After scoring a 26th-minute own goal to cancel out Dusan Tadic's opener, in-form striker Sebastien Haller netted at the opposite goal three minutes later to restore the Dutch outfit's lead, but Roman Yaremchuk came off the bench to restore parity in the 72nd minute.
As Aguias now turn their attention to the Primeira Liga where they were denied a third win on the bounce in their last outing courtesy of a 2-2 draw with Boavista at the Estadio do Bessa.
Benfica head into Sunday's game unbeaten in all but one of their last seven league games — claiming four wins and two draws — with a 2-1 defeat against Gil Vicente on February 2 being the only exception.
With 51 points from 23 games, the 2018-19 champions are currently third in the Primeira Liga standings, six points off Sporting Lisbon in second place and 12 behind league leaders Porto.
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Meanwhile, Vitoria de Guimaraes continue to struggle for consistency as they were beaten 3-1 by 15th-placed Arouca when the sides met at the Dom Afonso Henriques last Saturday.
In a thrilling first half, after Brazilian defender Joao Basso opened the scoring, Oscar Estupinan restored parity in the 26th minute, but Antony Alves and Andre Bukia scored in a six-minute spell to hand the visitors the win.
This was a first successive defeat in the Primeira Liga this season for Pepa's men, who fell to a 1-0 loss at the hands of Belenenses on February 13, when Safira struck the winner five minutes after the half-time break.
While Portimonense will be looking to quickly move on from last Saturday's result and return to winning ways, they have struggled to get going on the road in recent weeks, losing four and claiming one draw from their last five away games.
They also face the daunting task of going up against Nelson Verissimo's side who they have failed to beat in each of the last 20 meetings between the teams, stretching back to a 2-1 win in the Taca de Portugal in 2013.
With 30 points from 23 games, Os Vimaranenses are currently sixth in the league standings, level on points with seventh-placed Estoril Praia and 10 points adrift of Gil Vicente in the final Conference League qualification spot.
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Team News
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Benfica will take to the pitch without the services of the Brazilian duo of Rodrigo Pinho and Lucas Verissimo, who have been sidelined through muscle and knee injuries.
Portuguese defender Andre Almeida is also set to sit out his fifth consecutive game after coming off injury in the game against Gil Vicente on February 2.
Another name on the As Aguias injury table is Swiss forward Haris Seferovic, who has been out of action since January through a leg problem.
Yaremchuk staked his claim for a starting role after coming off the bench to restore parity against Ajax last time out and we expect the 26-year-old to come into the fold on Sunday.
As for Vitoria de Guimaraes, they will be without Portuguese youngster Miguel Maga after the 19-year-old defender came off with an injury three Saturdays ago.
With his strike against Arouca, Estupinan has now entered double figures for goals this season and we expect the Colombian forward to spearhead the attack once again.
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Gilberto, Otamendi, Vertonghen, Grimaldo; Everton, Weigl, Bernardo, Silva; Yaremchuk, Nunez
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Sa, Fernandes, Mumin, Quaresma; Semedo, Handel, Janvier, Rochinha; Duarte, Estupinan
We say: Benfica 2-1 Vitoria de Guimaraes
Vitoria de Guimaraes have struggled to get going on the road this season, managing just one win from their last nine away games. Meanwhile, Benfica have been utterly dominant in the history of this fixture and considering their current fine form, we predict this trend will continue with As Aguias claiming all three points unscathed.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 67.77%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 13.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.89%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (4.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
