Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 56.35%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 23.2% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.03%) and 1-3 (6.82%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 2-1 (5.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.