League leaders Inter Milan aim to embark on another long winning run on Saturday, as they welcome lowly Venezia to San Siro.
Having seen their eight-match Serie A success streak ended by a goalless draw last weekend, the Nerazzurri went on to progress in the Coppa Italia, while their Venetian visitors salvaged a first point of the year in their clash with Empoli.
Match preview
© Reuters
Though only two points ahead of their Rossoneri rivals in the table - with a game still in hand - Inter have continued to rack up a series of statistics to back up their claim to be supreme rulers of Serie A.
In fact, their last home defeat in the league came against Milan in October 2020, and the champions are currently unbeaten in 27 home matches in the top flight - winning 24 times during that formidable spell.
Furthermore, under Simone Inzaghi, Inter have become renowned for adding a free-scoring streak to the ruthless game plan instilled by former boss Antonio Conte, with a half-century of goals already reached and no side scoring more in the last half-hour of matches this term (18).
They have not relied on a single source to propel them towards a successful defence of their title either, as seven of Inter's last eight Serie A strikes have been netted by different players - and just two by forwards. Indeed, wing-back Denzel Dumfries has scored more than once for the club during that run, in a period where they have also proved almost impenetrable at the back.
Following last weekend's 0-0 draw versus Atalanta, the Nerazzurri have kept a clean sheet in seven of their last eight league games, a spell in which they have conceded only one goal. To put that into context, that is as many shut-outs as they had managed in their previous 25 top-flight fixtures.
Not only have Inter been flying serenely through the challenges that Serie A presents, they have also enjoyed significant cup success in recent days, dramatically beating old rivals Juventus in the Supercoppa Italiana before making it through to the Coppa Italia quarter-finals with another extra-time victory - this time at Empoli's expense.
To surpass Conte's achievements at San Siro, the double must now be Inzaghi's aim - and his side also remain contenders for the Champions League - so taking one more step towards the title will be on his mind on Saturday, when they face a promoted team they beat 2-0 in November's reverse fixture.
© Reuters
By contrast with Inter's irrepressible form, Venezia have not won any of their last eight league games - picking up only three points in the process. No team in Serie A has collected fewer since the end of November, as they have slid closer to the trapdoor back to Calcio's second tier.
Having started the year with a 3-0 home defeat against Scudetto-chasing Milan, swiftly followed by a Coppa Italia exit to Atalanta, the 17th-placed side at least stopped the rot by securing a point against Empoli last weekend, as David Okereke found a 73rd-minute equaliser having come on as a first-half substitute.
Still just two points above the drop zone - though with a game in hand over most of their relegation rivals - the Lagunari's last victory anywhere was in the second round of the cup last month, when they beat Serie B outfit Ternana 3-1 on home soil.
Having just returned to the elite following two decades away, the Arancioneroverdi have continued to invest in new recruits over the past weeks, with former Manchester United winger Nani recently joining Bayern Munich midfielder Michael Cuisance at the Penzo, and setting up Okereke's goal with one of his first touches since returning to Italy.
Before they undertake perhaps their toughest assignment of the season on Sunday, though, Paolo Zanetti's men have won just two away matches since their promotion back to the big time, and history is not on their side either: the club's only success against Inter in Milan came as long ago as 1943.
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
- D
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Inter continue to be blessed by an almost fully-stocked squad, free of injury and illness, with forward Joaquin Correa - forced off in the first half on Wednesday - the only exception due to a thigh injury.
Having made several changes for the Coppa Italia tie with Empoli, which ultimately ran to 120 minutes, Simone Inzaghi will revert to his favoured league lineup on Saturday, meaning goalscorers Alexis Sanchez, Andrea Ranocchia and Stefano Sensi - soon to join Sampdoria on loan - are bound for the bench.
Marcelo Brozovic served a suspension in the cup, but should start in the familiar midfield trio which pins together the hosts' familiar 3-5-2 formation - top scorers Edin Dzeko and Lautaro Martinez being reunited up front.
Meanhwile, Venezia could give Nani his first start, after the Portuguese veteran provided an assist less than two minutes after coming on as a late substitute on his debut - his first appearance in Serie A since May 2018, against Inter.
Paolo Zanetti has a handful of absences to deal with, as full-back Tyronne Ebuehi is still on international duty with Nigeria at the Africa Cup of Nations, and Sergio Romero, Ridgeciano Haps and Norwegian winger Dennis Johnsen are all considered doubtful amid a COVID-19 outbreak at the club.
After shifting into a defensive role last week, Chelsea loanee Ethan Ampadu may continue to cover at right-back, opening an opportunity for Antonio Vacca to feature in central midfield.
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Brozovic, Calhanoglu, Perisic; Martinez, Dzeko
Venezia possible starting lineup:
Romero; Ampadu, Ceccaroni, Caldara, Molinaro; Vacca, Cuisance, Crnigoj; Aramu, Okereke; Henry
We say: Inter Milan 2-0 Venezia
A repeat of the 2-0 defeat they inflicted on Venezia a few weeks ago is a strong possibility on Saturday evening, as Inter were able to rest many of their main men in midweek and their visitors could be severely depleted.
The champions are virtually unassailable at San Siro, and with goals coming from all quarters, they should be cruising to victory before the game reaches its climax.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 82.65%. A draw had a probability of 11.8% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 5.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.07%) and 1-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.61%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (1.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.
