As the dust begins to settle on the drama Marseille experienced in their trip to Nice last weekend, they now welcome Saint-Etienne to the Orange Velodrome on Saturday.
After the abandonment of their previous game, this will effectively be the hosts' third match of the season, but they are nonetheless three spots above their opponents in the standings.
Match preview
© Reuters
Marseille had enjoyed a solid if unspectacular start to their 2021-22 Ligue 1 campaign - with a win away at Montpellier followed up by a draw with Bordeaux - until the fireworks of their game at Nice propelled them into the spotlight.
With around a quarter of an hour remaining, and the home side leading 1-0, Marseille's Dimitri Payet was struck in the back by a bottle. He launched the bottle back into the crowd and chaos ensued as stewards and players struggled to restrain fans as they stormed the pitch, with the players eventually leaving the field and the match being abandoned when Marseille refused to return.
Manager Jorge Sampaoli had to be held back as scuffles broke out in the dugout and physio Pablo Fernandez has been suspended for his actions during the melee.
Investigations are ongoing and this will surely have had an effect on the players - some of whom posted photographs on social media showing that they had been strangled - but they must now attempt to regroup and focus on the coming games.
Saint-Etienne may have struggled against Marseille historically, but they were victorious in both fixtures last season and pose a real threat - one certainly worthy of a team's full attention.
© Reuters
Claude Puel's time at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard has not been overly convincing, having taken charge of a team that finished fourth and only narrowly avoided relegation the following season.
Much of last season was also spent hovering in and around the relegation zone - until a stronger finish to the season saw them climb to mid-table - and many fans appear to consider Puel fortunate to have retained his job.
In order to win them over, he will need to start winning games - something he is yet to manage this season, with a string of three consecutive draws.
That being said, the most recent draw will have come as something of a relief. Les Verts spent much of the game one goal down to reigning champions Lille, before teenager Saidou Sow headed home his first goal for the club to grab a late equaliser in the 87th minute.
Perhaps that will provide some belief within the squad that they can go one better this weekend and finally rediscover that winning feeling - for the first time in seven games - to move up into the top half, which is an area of the table they have rarely occupied during their manager's tenure.
- W
- D
- D
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- D
- D
- D
- L
- L
- L
- D
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Despite the aforementioned clashes with Nice fans, Marseille do not appear to have picked up any injuries in the fracas.
They will still be without centre-back Leonardo Balerdi, though, as he continues to serve a two-match suspension for his red card against Bordeaux, with Alvaro Gonzalez likely continuing to deputise in the backline.
Goalkeeper Pau Lopez is now back in training, as he recovers from a shoulder injury and a bout of COVID-19, but Steve Mandanda looks set to keep his place between the sticks for now.
Saint-Etienne have a few issues of their own, with Alpha Sissoko, Charles Abi and Aimen Moueffek all doubts as they recover from a variety of issues - a thigh injury, COVID-19 and a broken arm respectively.
Left-back Miguel Trauco did not feature in the game against Lens due to personal reasons, but returned to the bench for the game against Lille and could feature this weekend, as Puel likely sticks with his favoured 4-3-3 formation.
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Saliba, Gonzalez, Peres; Under, Guendouzi, Kamara, Gueye, De la Fuente; Gerson, Payet
Saint-Etienne possible starting lineup:
Green; Macon, Sow, Moukoudi, Kolodziejczak; Neyou, Camara, Youssouf; Hamouma, Khazri, Bouanga
We say: Marseille 2-1 Saint-Etienne
Marseille should be fired up by the ongoing war of words with Nice and, as long as they can keep focused and channel that into a positive performance, they should have enough to get the better of a still unconvincing Saint-Etienne side.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 54.04%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 20.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%), while for a Saint-Etienne win it was 0-1 (7.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
