Montpellier HSC could see any faint hopes of European qualification dashed this weekend as they prepare to welcome Saint-Etienne to the Stade de la Mosson for Sunday's Ligue 1 battle.
Michel Der Zakarian's side succumbed to a 3-1 defeat at Nice last time out, while Saint-Etienne also came away with zero points from their battle with Brest.
Match preview
© Reuters
Not even the most ardent of Montpellier supporters could have envisaged their side's unbeaten streak continuing for the rest of the season, as Der Zakarian's men saw their 15-game run without defeat in all competitions come to an end against Nice last time out.
The Gaetan Laborde-Andy Delort combination worked wonders again as the former headed home with just three minutes on the clock, but Hicham Boudaoui, Alexis Claude-Maurice and Jean-Clair Todibo turned the game on its head to prevent Montpellier going 12 games unbeaten in the top flight.
With seven of Montpellier's 11 matches in their unbeaten run ending in draws, La Paillade's European hopes are hanging by a thread as they occupy eighth spot in the table - nine points adrift of the top five with four games left - and seventh-placed Rennes also boast an unassailable seven-point lead over Montpellier.
Der Zakarian therefore has to pray for a spate of slip ups from their European-chasing rivals if they are to stand any chance of finishing fifth, but anything other than a win would effectively kill off any hopes of Montpellier flying the French flag high in continental football next term.
La Paillade have managed to take 11 points from the last 15 on offer at home - winning three and drawing two of their last five - but their ageing rearguard is still without a clean sheet at the Stade de la Mosson all season, and they only have two more chances to end that atrocious run before the season concludes.
© Reuters
The return to form of Wahbi Khazri is giving Saint-Etienne the best chance possible of finishing the season strongly, and the Tunisia international took just 11 minutes to capitalise on a defensive error and fire into the far corner against Brest.
However, his Pirates counterpart Gaetan Charbonnier soon stole the show as his thunderous free kick levelled proceedings after 66 minutes, and the 32-year-old netted a second late on to propel Brest to an unexpected win on Les Verts' turf.
Claude Puel's side had begun to build some momentum with two victories to kick April off on the right foot, but they were extremely unfortunate to end up on the wrong end of the scoreline at Paris Saint-Germain, and their confidence has now taken another hit as they aim to secure their Ligue 1 status.
Saint-Etienne should not be in any danger of relegation, though, as they sit comfortably in 14th - eight points above the bottom three - and they travel to Montpellier having won three of their last five on the road, keeping a clean sheet on each occasion.
Stephy Mavididi's strike gave Montpellier a 1-0 win on Saint-Etienne's turf back in November, and Les Verts are winless and goalless in five against their upcoming opponents since a 1-0 triumph in April 2018, where the veteran Romain Hamouma bagged the winner.
- D
- W
- D
- D
- D
- L
- D
- W
- D
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Inspirational Montpellier captain Hilton is still suspended after his red card against Canet Roussillon in the Coupe de France, so Nicolas Cozza should continue alongside Daniel Congre with Pedro Mendes out for the season.
Teji Savanier begins a two-match ban for comments made at half time during the draw with Marseille, and with Jordan Ferri struggling with an adductor issue, Joris Chotard and Damien Le Tallec should be given the nod in midfield.
Arnaud Souquet also remains sidelined, but Junior Sambia has established himself as Der Zakarian's first-choice right-back, while Delort will aim to score or assist a goal for the fourth league game in a row here.
Saint-Etienne will welcome Denis Bouanga back from a one-game ban, and a formation change could be in order to accommodate his return, meaning that Chelsea-linked starlet Lucas Gourna-Douath may drop out of the midfield.
Hamouma will also eye a return to the wings, with Arnaud Nordin's spot in jeopardy, but Puel should resist the temptation to make significant alterations for this clash.
Etienne Green will continue in goal as Jessy Moulin and Stefan Bajic remain out of contention, while Anthony Modeste and Yvann Macon will not play again until next season.
Montpellier HSC possible starting lineup:
Omlin; Sambia, Congre, Cozza, Ristic; Chotard, Le Tallec; Laborde, Mollet, Mavididi; Delort
Saint-Etienne possible starting lineup:
Green; Debuchy, Moukoudi, Cisse, Trauco; Neyou; Hamouma, Camara, Aouchiche, Bouanga; Khazri
We say: Montpellier HSC 1-1 Saint-Etienne
Saint-Etienne could hit the all-important 40 point mark in this game and may be tempted to play for a draw, but that could prove costly against Laborde and Delort's deadly double act.
Der Zakarian has far more absentees than he would have liked, though, and Puel's side have shown positive signs in recent weeks, so we are tipping this one to end all square.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 42.25%. A win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 32.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Saint-Etienne win was 0-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
