Trabzonspor and Caykur Rizespor get round 11 of the Turkish Super Lig underway on Friday when they go toe to toe at the Senol Gunes Stadium Stadium.
The hosts currently lead the way in the league standings, while the visitors find themselves rock bottom after a rough start to the season.
Match preview
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Trabzonspor strengthened their lead at the top of the Super Lig table last Saturday as they cruised to a 1-0 win over a resilient Goztepe side at the Gursel Aksel Stadium.
In a cagey affair, Gervinho came up trumps for the visitors as he netted the only goal of the game four minutes from the hour mark to condemn the hosts to their sixth loss in seven games.
This followed a thrilling 3-1 win away to league favourites Fenerbahce, where Anastasios Bakasetas hit a brace before Yusuf Sari netted a 90th-minute goal to secure the comeback after Diego Rossi had put the visitors ahead inside the opening three minutes.
Abdullah Avci's men are now unbeaten in each of their most recent eight games, picking up five wins and three draws since a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Roma in the Conference League qualifiers back in August.
The Black Sea Storm remain the only side yet to taste defeat in the league and this fine run of results has seen them surge to the top of the table after picking up 24 points from 10 games.
This has been down to their solid performances at both ends of the pitch as they boast the league's joint-most goals to date with 20 and have shipped nine at the opposite end of the pitch.
Meanwhile, Caykur Rizespor picked up their first win of the campaign last time out when they saw off Kasimpasa 2-1 at the Estadio Caykur Didi.
After Basaksehir loanee Cemali Sertel broke the deadlock in the 11th minute to hand the hosts a first-half lead, Umut Bozok converted from 12 yards to restore parity before Selim Ay netted a dramatic winner in the 11th minute of injury time.
Prior to that, the Black Sea Sparrowhawks failed to taste victory since May 11 when they edged out Gaziantep in a nine-goal thriller — a run which saw them lose 11 of 12 games across all competitions.
However, the result brought no changes to the shape of the table as Rizespor are currently rooted to the bottom, five points adrift of Giresunspor in safety.
This dire start to the season has been in no small part owing to their shambolic performances at the defensive end of the pitch, a key area needing tinkering as they conceded the most goals of all 20 teams in the division.
While Hamza Hamzaoglu's men will be looking to make it two wins from two for the first time since April, they face the stern test of taking on an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in all but one of their most recent 15 encounters, losing 11 and picking up three draws.
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Team News
Trabzonspor will take to the pitch without several key players down the spine of the team as forward Bengali-Fode Koita and midfielder Abdulkadir Parmak are currently recuperating from thigh and muscle injuries respectively.
Bruno Peres and Anthony Nwakaeme will both play no part in the game after the duo came off injured in the game against Fenerbahce two Sundays ago.
Having missed the clash against the Yellow Canaries through a sight injury, Marek Hamsik returned to the fold last time out, where he played the full 90 minutes against Goztepe and we expect the former Napoli man to handle business at the centre of the park once again.
Meanwhile, Tyler Boyd will serve the second of a three-match ban after the American forward picked up a straight red inside the opening 11 minutes versus Giresunspor two weeks ago.
Veteran defender Gokhan Gonul is set to miss his fourth straight game after the 36-year-old picked up a hamstring problem versus Basaksehir on September 26.
Following his side's impressive display versus Kasimpasa last time out, Hamzaoglu could name a similar starting side, meaning we could see an attacking quartet of Yannick Bolasie, Fernando Boldrin, Deniz Hummet and Joel Pohjanpalo
Trabzonspor possible starting lineup:
Cakir; Peres, Ie, Hugo, Denswil; Ozdemir, Omur, Bakasetas; Gervinho, Cornelius, Nwakaeme
Caykur Rizespor possible starting lineup:
Akkan; Sertel, Holmen, Ay, Fabricio; Phiri, Dabo; Bolasie, Hummet, Boldrin; Pohjanpalo
We say: Trabzonspor 3-0 Caykur Rizespor
Rizespor head into the game off the back of picking up their first win of the season and will be looking to keep the juggernaut rolling and move out of the relegation places. However, they face an uphill task up against a significantly stronger Trabzonspor side who are yet to lose a league game this season. The hosts are also unbeaten at home since March and we are tipping them to come away with all three points.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Trabzonspor win with a probability of 68%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Caykur Rizespor had a probability of 13.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Trabzonspor win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Caykur Rizespor win it was 0-1 (4.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Trabzonspor would win this match.
