The two top in Super Lig go head to head on Sunday afternoon as leaders Trabzonspor square off against nearest challengers Konyaspor.
While the home side hold a nine-point advantage at the top of the standings, the visitors to the Senol Gunes Stadium possess a game in hand.
Match preview
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Having led since the early weeks of the campaign, Trabzonspor are now under pressure to get over the line for their first Super Lig title success since 1984.
The Black Sea Storm have still only lost once in 23 matches this season, but three draws in six games has given hope to their upcoming opponents.
There may also be the perception that narrow wins over Galatasaray and Kasimpasa is a sign that Abdullah Avci's side are beginning to falter, although that should only be regarded as a continuation of a trend with 11 league matches having now passed since they last netted more than twice.
The 2-1 victory at Galatasaray was impressive with both goals coming during the final six minutes, and Trabzonspor showed a different side to their game in the following fixture as they held on to a 1-0 lead from the sixth minute.
Although Avci will naturally want a better return in the final third over the closing months, results are all that matter at this stage, particularly against a team who have emerged as their only challengers.
During a season where the big three have consistently under-performed, Konyaspor have taken full advantage, winning seven of their last eight matches to pull eight points clear in second position.
Their last four victories have all come by 1-0 scorelines, the most notable result coming against third-placed Adana Demirspor on January 18.
Remarkably, none of this squad have netted more than five times in the league this season, but the form book was ripped up in the Turkish Cup earlier this week as Ilhan Palut's team went down 5-4 at Fatih Karagumruk.
In the reverse fixture earlier in the season, Trabzonspor defied playing at a player disadvantage for 82 minutes to claim a 2-2 draw.
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Team News
Trabzonspor will be without defender Bruno Peres, who serves a one-match ban after his dismissal against Kasimpasa for two yellow cards.
Serkan Asan is expected to deputise at right-back, while Berat Ozdemir is pushing for a return in the centre of the pitch.
Djaniny and Anastasios Bakasetas are also options in the final third, but Anthony Nwakaeme may keep his place despite having failed to contribute a goal or assist in his last two starts.
Palut may see little reason to make any unenforced changes to the Konyaspor XI which started the win over Giresunspor.
However, Amilton played 120 minutes in the cup in midweek, something which may potentially lead to Zymer Bytyqi being drafted into the starting lineup on the left flank.
Trabzonspor possible starting lineup:
Cakir; Asan, Denswil, Hugo, Puchacz; Tokoz, Ozdemir; Visca, Omur, Nwakaeme; Cornelius
Konyaspor possible starting lineup:
Ersu; Skubic, Demirbag, Bardakci, Guilherme; Dikmen, Hadziahmetovic; Michalak, Rahmanovic, Bytyqi; Koka
We say: Trabzonspor 2-1 Konyaspor
Despite their advantage in the table, the pressure is on Trabzonspor to avoid defeat in this contest. However, with the stakes arguably higher than what they have experienced all season, we are backing the home team to rise to the occasion.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Trabzonspor win with a probability of 56.8%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Konyaspor had a probability of 20.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Trabzonspor win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.75%), while for a Konyaspor win it was 0-1 (5.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Trabzonspor in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Trabzonspor.
