After claiming another big scalp last weekend, Hellas Verona will seek to secure their top-half position in the Serie A standings when they host struggling Sampdoria on Saturday evening.
The teams meet at Stadio Bentegodi with the home side revelling in an away victory over Atalanta, while Samp slumped to defeat against rock-bottom Salernitana and are yet to assure their safety.
Match preview
© Reuters
Posting just their fourth away win of the season, Verona closed to within three points of their hosts Atalanta last week, after a 2-1 success in Bergamo.
Having gone two goals ahead in the 55th minute, the Scaligeri - who registered 21 shots at goal - were able to hold out until the final whistle after Giorgio Scalvini's late strike set up a nervy finale.
Sitting ninth in the table as a result, Hellas have generally been better on home soil this term, but last time out at the Bentegodi they were beaten 2-0 by reigning champions Inter; suffering just a second loss from eight Serie A fixtures - both of which were against Scudetto contenders.
Igor Tudor's front-foot outfit have rattled in goals at a rate of two per game in Verona so far this season, after recovering from a slow start to maintain their top-half status in the Serie A pecking order.
Saturday's visitors are something of a bogey club for the Gialloblu, however, as they have come out on top just once in their last 12 league encounters with Sampdoria - losing nine times in the process.
© Reuters
Despite their troubles in recent times, Sampdoria have won each of their last four Serie A games against Verona, including a 3-1 win in November's reverse fixture at Marassi.
The teams' respective fortunes have contrasted significantly since then, though, as Samp's slide down the standings continues.
After suffering their 20th - and perhaps most chastening - defeat of the campaign last weekend, the Blucerchiati equalled their worst such tally in a single Serie A campaign, which was set two years ago.
Having won only three of their 15 matches in 2022, and seeing scant improvement since Marco Giampaolo returned to the dugout, a 2-1 loss at home to 20th-placed Salernitana leaves them with work to do in order to avoid relegation.
Unable to fight back from going two down within six minutes to the Salerno side, their 11th loss since the turn of the year has seen the Ligurian outfit slip to 16th place in the standings - still seven points clear of the relegation zone, but with Venezia having a game in hand.
They will surely hope, then, to assuage further protests from angered fans and extend their recent record of success against Verona this weekend.
- D
- L
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Igor Tudor recently welcomed both Antonin Barak and Miguel Veloso back from injury, so Verona should have almost all of their first-choice players available for Saturday's late kickoff.
Only defensive regular Pawel Dawidowicz and reserve goalkeeper Ivor Pandur remain out of action for the Scaligeri, so 16-goal top scorer Giovanni Simeone will once again lead the line up front, aided by former Samp forward Gianluca Caprari, who has laid on seven assists in Serie A this season.
Meanwhile, the visitors will be without long-term injury absentees Manolo Gabbiadini and Sebastian Giovinco again this week, but both Albin Ekdal and Danish starlet Mikkel Damsgaard have returned to full fitness and are available to start after appearing from the bench last time out.
Having scored in a losing cause against Salernitana, Francesco Caputo is expected to retain his place as Sampdoria's focal point up front, though he has previously played 362 minutes against Verona in Serie A without ever finding the net.
Veteran frontman Fabio Quagliarella may not join him, however, should Marco Giampaolo opt to stiffen his midfield and select a lone striker, which would open the door for Abdelhamid Sabiri's return to the starting XI.
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Ceccherini, Gunter, Casale; Faraoni, Tameze, Ilic, Lazovic; Barak, Caprari; Simeone
Sampdoria possible starting lineup:
Audero; Bereszynski, Ferrari, Colley, Murru; Candreva, Thorsby, Sensi, Augello; Sabiri; Caputo
We say: Hellas Verona 2-1 Sampdoria
None of Sampdoria's last 14 league games have ended level - and most have ended in defeat - so a draw is overdue for the visitors.
However, Verona are particularly prolific on their own patch, and fielding a more fluent front line than their opponents can help them to another home victory.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 62.53%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 16.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.39%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (4.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
