After finally ending their search for a first win of 2022 in spectacular style, Empoli welcome mid-table counterparts Torino to Tuscany on Sunday afternoon.
The teams meet at Stadio Carlo Castellani with the hosts now seeking back-to-back home victories, while their visitors aim to recover from letting two points slip in midweek.
Match preview
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Storming back from the brink to defy the odds and come out on top in last week's game against Napoli, a remarkable 3-2 victory ended Empoli's long winless run in Serie A after several months of trying.
Aurelio Andreazzoli's side seemed bereft of confidence and in an apparently endless downward spiral before the Scudetto contenders arrived at Stadio Castellani, but even a two-goal deficit did not deter them from carrying the fight into the final ten minutes, where they struck three times to steal the points and end their visitors' title dream.
Last year's Serie B champions had not won any of their previous 16 league games - both losing and drawing eight - and were enduring the longest winless streak across the top five European leagues, but an 80th-minute goal from Liam Henderson and Andrea Pinamonti's brace offer hope of a positive conclusion to their lopsided campaign.
Points accrued during an excellent autumn period - when they not only toppled Napoli away from home but also beat Juventus - stands the Azzurri in good stead with four games remaining, and they have been spared a late scrap for survival.
Still sitting 14th, Empoli remain 12 points above the bottom three, and have the luxury of approaching the season's final weeks with the pressure off.
Having last posted successive Serie A wins back in December, they will now take on one of their favourite opponents in the top flight, as they have met Torino 19 times before at the elite level; only losing on three occasions.
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Beaten in four of their last five fixtures against Sunday's hosts, Torino have yet to taste victory at the Castellani in Serie A - losing six of nine encounters there between the two clubs.
Precedent is not on their side, then, as they attempt to extend their current unbeaten run to a sixth league match, following a dramatic draw on Wednesday.
In a spectacular goal fest against out-of-form Atalanta, Ivan Juric's men led 4-2 deep into the second half, but they left the back door open to allow La Dea to ultimately equalise in the 84th-minute.
Following that late collapse in Bergamo, the Granata have now conceded 44% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of play - including five of their last eight - which represents the highest such rate throughout Serie A.
Nevertheless, Torino are unbeaten in their last five outings and have drawn with not only Atalanta, but also league leaders Milan and Lazio; leaving them occupying 11th in the table and with just a two-point deficit to Sassuolo in pursuit of a top-half finish.
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Team News
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Following his team's miraculous comeback last weekend, Empoli coach Aurelio Andreazzoli is unlikely to make many changes to his starting XI, though Liam Henderson scored as a substitute and is a strong contender to come into the side.
Fillipo Bandinelli's one-match ban for accumulated yellow cards opens the door for Marco Benassi in midfield, while centre-back Lorenzo Tonelli again misses out due to injury; joining Nicolas Haas and Riccardo Marchizza on the sidelines.
Up front for the hosts, top scorer Andrea Pinamonti has netted 12 goals in Serie A this season after his brace against Napoli - one more than across the Inter loanee's five previous top-flight campaigns.
Meanwhile, Torino's star striker Andrea Belotti returned from a muscular injury to feature on the bench without playing in midweek, and may be involved as a second-half substitute for his deputy Antonio Sanabria, who leads the line in a familiar 3-4-2-1 formation.
Mohamed Fares, Armando Izzo and Simone Zaza are all set to be unavailable on Sunday, with Marko Pjaca also a doubt, but Rolando Mandragora has recovered from illness and should start.
After successive braces, Sasa Lukic now seeks to find the net in three straight Serie A matches for the first time since 2020, when he was the last Torino midfielder to manage such a feat.
Empoli possible starting lineup:
Vicario; Stojanovic, Viti, Luperto, Parisi; Zurkowski, Asllani, Benassi; Henderson, Bajrami; Pinamonti
Torino possible starting lineup:
Milinkovic-Savic; Zima, Bremer, Rodriguez; Singo, Lukic, Mandragora, Vojvoda; Praet, Brekalo; Sanabria
We say: Empoli 2-2 Torino
Even including their heroics last time out, Empoli have won just four times at home since promotion back to the top flight last summer, and are more likely to draw according to recent trends.
In 2022, the Azzurri have finished seven league games all-square - only Genoa have done so more since the turn of the year - and Torino have drawn each of their last three too.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torino win with a probability of 38.68%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 36.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torino win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.72%) and 0-2 (5.81%). The likeliest Empoli win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Torino would win this match.
